Bordeaux 3-1 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bordeaux at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bordeaux vs Valenciennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bordeaux welcome Valenciennes to Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Ligue 2 (matchday 21). Kick-off is Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bordeaux have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bordeaux's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Valenciennes — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Valenciennes's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Bordeaux carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Bordeaux have won 2, Valenciennes 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Bordeaux 2–1 Valenciennes — a Bordeaux win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bordeaux trading profile (last 57 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Valenciennes trading profile (last 57 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 40% versus Valenciennes 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bordeaux 42% | Valenciennes 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.30 xG and Valenciennes 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 0.959 / defence 0.966 | Valenciennes attack 0.828 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.134. Data: built from Bordeaux's last 57 games and Valenciennes's last 58.
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 46% | Draw 28% | Valenciennes 26%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.18 | Draw 3.54 | Valenciennes 3.86. Bordeaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bordeaux are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bordeaux's last 10 home games and Valenciennes's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bordeaux 40% (last 10 home games) | Valenciennes 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 21 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 46% | Draw 28% | Valenciennes 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Bordeaux 1.30 / Valenciennes 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 0.959 / def 0.966 | Valenciennes attack 0.828 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Valenciennes xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bordeaux vs Valenciennes FAQs
What time does Bordeaux vs Valenciennes kick off?
Bordeaux vs Valenciennes kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Valenciennes?
Bordeaux 3 - 1 Valenciennes.
Where is Bordeaux vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Valenciennes part of?
Bordeaux vs Valenciennes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 21) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 46% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bordeaux and Valenciennes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Bordeaux vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bordeaux's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Valenciennes's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Valenciennes's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bordeaux's last 57 games and Valenciennes's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.54
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.21
0.91
Valenciennes xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
7%
14.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bordeaux vs Valenciennes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Bordeaux and 0.91 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Bordeaux have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 26W 14D 17L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Valenciennes's form line: 11W 22D 24L from 57 games, 0.96 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Bordeaux are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valenciennes.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bordeaux have posted 1.93 PPG from their last 27 home games (15W 7D 5L).
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 5W 7D 15L from their last 27 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bordeaux are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.93 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Valenciennes
Blended
Bordeaux (Home) vs Valenciennes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bordeaux
Blended
Valenciennes
Blended
❓ Bordeaux vs Valenciennes Form FAQs
What form are Bordeaux and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 26W 14D 17L in their last 57 games (1.61 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 11W 22D 24L in their last 57 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Valenciennes away?
Bordeaux's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 1.93 PPG; Valenciennes away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from July 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 23 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Bordeaux have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Bordeaux's record when hosting Valenciennes specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bordeaux
1
Draws
0
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Bordeaux vs Valenciennes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Valenciennes?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bordeaux have won 3, Valenciennes have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Valenciennes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 January 2024: Bordeaux 3-1 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Valenciennes?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 41%, Valenciennes 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Bordeaux) and 37% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Valenciennes in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bordeaux vs Valenciennes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bordeaux and Valenciennes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 37% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bordeaux and Valenciennes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bordeaux's recent games and 37% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Valenciennes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 63% of Valenciennes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bordeaux cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Valenciennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Valenciennes 3-1 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.30 xG and Valenciennes 0.91 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bordeaux beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against Valenciennes attack 0.83 / defence 1.12, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 46% | Draw 28% | Valenciennes 26%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 42%, Valenciennes 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Valenciennes's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Bordeaux (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Valenciennes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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