Bastia 2-1 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bastia at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Niort encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Niort make the trip to Stade Armand-Césari to face Bastia in Ligue 2 (matchday 35). The match kicks off on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bastia have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bastia's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Niort's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Niort have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Bastia's favour (1.80 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Bastia edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2022, ended Bastia 4–1 Niort — a Bastia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Niort goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 44% versus Niort 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 32% | Niort 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.55 xG and Niort 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.122 / defence 0.878 | Niort attack 0.601 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.110. Niort's attack rating of 0.601 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.59. Data: built from Bastia's last 72 games and Niort's last 72.
Result probabilities: Bastia 61% | Draw 26% | Niort 14%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 1.65 | Draw 3.90 | Niort 7.35. The model has a clear lean to Bastia (61%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Niort's lower xG of 0.59 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Bastia's last 10 home games and Niort's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bastia 40% (last 10 home games) | Niort 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 35 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 61% | Draw 26% | Niort 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Bastia 1.55 / Niort 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.122 / def 0.878 | Niort attack 0.601 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Bastia (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Niort xG
35%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bastia vs Niort FAQs
What time does Bastia vs Niort kick off?
Bastia vs Niort kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Niort?
Bastia 2 - 1 Niort.
Where is Bastia vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Niort part of?
Bastia vs Niort is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 35) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 61% chance of winning, Niort a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Bastia and Niort will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Bastia vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bastia's attack at 1.12x the league average against Niort's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.60x) against Bastia's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.59.
These ratings are built from Bastia's last 72 games and Niort's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
61%
1.65
26%
3.90
14%
7.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.14
0.59
Niort xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
7.35
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
56%
1.80
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
34%
2.96
3%
34.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 10.7 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bastia vs Niort Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Bastia and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Bastia and 0.59 for Niort, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Niort?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bastia come into this having played 72 games, going 25W 24D 23L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Niort sit at 1.01 PPG from 72 outings (19W 16D 37L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Bastia against 1.01 for Niort. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bastia's home form reads 15W 15D 6L across their last 36 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Niort have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 36 away games (7W 9D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bastia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 0.94 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Current Season
Niort
Current Season
Bastia (Home) vs Niort (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bastia
Current Season
Niort
Current Season
❓ Bastia vs Niort Form FAQs
What form are Bastia and Niort in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 25W 24D 23L in their last 72 games (1.38 PPG), while Niort have gone 19W 16D 37L in their last 72 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Niort away?
Bastia's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.67 PPG; Niort away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Bastia or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Niort in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 13 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Bastia have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won Niort 1-4 Bastia on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bastia
1
Draws
0
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Bastia vs Niort H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Niort?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bastia have won 3, Niort have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bastia and Niort last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 May 2023: Bastia 2-1 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Niort?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bastia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 39%, Niort 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Bastia and 42% for Niort.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 28% of games; Niort in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bastia vs Niort Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bastia and Niort matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Bastia's recent matches and 33% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bastia and Niort matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Bastia's recent games and 42% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Niort matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Bastia's recent matches and 61% of Niort's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bastia edge out Niort 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Niort 2-1 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.55 xG and Niort 0.59 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.12 / defence 0.88 against Niort attack 0.60 / defence 1.08, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 61% | Draw 26% | Niort 14%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 32%, Niort 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Niort's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.38 PPG, Niort 1.01 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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