Sochaux 0-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sochaux vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sochaux host Guingamp at Stade Auguste-Bonal in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sochaux stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sochaux's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Bonal this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sochaux are significantly better at Stade Auguste-Bonal than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sochaux 1.10 PPG, Guingamp 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Sochaux hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Guingamp, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Sochaux winning.
The historical record gives Sochaux a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sochaux in-play and half-time data (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 49% versus Guingamp 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sochaux 44% | Guingamp 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.54 xG and Guingamp 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 1.146 / defence 1.104 | Guingamp attack 0.999 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.110. Data: 72 Sochaux games / 72 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 44% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 30%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Guingamp 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sochaux at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sochaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sochaux 50% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 44% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Sochaux 1.54 / Guingamp 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 1.146 / def 1.104 | Guingamp attack 0.999 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Guingamp xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Guingamp kick off?
Sochaux vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Guingamp?
Sochaux 0 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Sochaux vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Guingamp part of?
Sochaux vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 44% chance of winning, Guingamp a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sochaux and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Guingamp?
Record (3 meetings): Sochaux 3W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 0W.
What form are Sochaux and Guingamp in?
Sochaux (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sochaux's attack at 1.15x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Sochaux's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.91
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Sochaux xG
Total xG
2.77
1.22
Guingamp xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
6%
15.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sochaux and 1.22 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sochaux come into this having played 72 games, going 34W 19D 19L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.43 PPG from 72 outings (27W 22D 23L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sochaux on 1.68 PPG, Guingamp on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sochaux's home form reads 19W 10D 6L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.37 points per game from 35 outings (12W 12D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sochaux are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.35 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp in 61%.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 34W 19D 19L in their last 72 games (1.68 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 27W 22D 23L in their last 72 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Guingamp away?
Sochaux's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 1.91 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Guingamp in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sochaux's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sochaux
0
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 3, Guingamp have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Sochaux 0-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Guingamp?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 49%, Guingamp 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Sochaux) and 43% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Guingamp in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Sochaux's recent matches and 57% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Sochaux's recent games and 43% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Guingamp tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guingamp defy the odds to beat Sochaux 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Sochaux 0-1 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.54 xG and Guingamp 1.22 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sochaux fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 1.15 / defence 1.10 against Guingamp attack 1.00 / defence 1.05, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 44% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 30%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 44%, Guingamp 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sochaux 1.68 PPG, Guingamp 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Sochaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.51 scoring average — below par going forward. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.