Auxerre 3-1 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Bordeaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Bordeaux in Ligue 2 (matchday 20). Kick-off: Monday 15 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Auxerre's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Bordeaux's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bordeaux's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Auxerre's favour (2.00 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Auxerre edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 6.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Auxerre 4–2 Bordeaux — a Auxerre win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Bordeaux half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 59% versus Bordeaux 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 52% | Bordeaux 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.80 xG and Bordeaux 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.303 / defence 1.080 | Bordeaux attack 0.983 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.136. Auxerre carry an above-average attack rating of 1.303 — their 1.80 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Auxerre's last 19 games and Bordeaux's last 56.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 51% | Draw 23% | Bordeaux 26%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.95 | Draw 4.32 | Bordeaux 3.91. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Auxerre's last 10 home games and Bordeaux's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Auxerre 50% (last 10 home games) | Bordeaux 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 20 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Monday 15 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 51% | Draw 23% | Bordeaux 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Auxerre 1.80 / Bordeaux 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.303 / def 1.080 | Bordeaux attack 0.983 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Bordeaux xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Bordeaux FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Bordeaux kick off?
Auxerre vs Bordeaux kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 15 January 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Bordeaux?
Auxerre 3 - 1 Bordeaux.
Where is Auxerre vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Bordeaux part of?
Auxerre vs Bordeaux is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 20) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 51% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Auxerre and Bordeaux will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Auxerre vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (1.30) and Bordeaux's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bordeaux's attack (0.98x) against Auxerre's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 19 games and Bordeaux's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
51%
1.95
23%
4.32
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Auxerre xG
Total xG
3.01
1.21
Bordeaux xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
4%
23.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Bordeaux Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.21 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Auxerre come into this having played 56 games, going 19W 16D 21L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Bordeaux sit at 1.64 PPG from 56 outings (26W 14D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Auxerre against 1.64 for Bordeaux. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Auxerre's home form reads 10W 9D 9L across their last 28 home games, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Bordeaux have taken 1.32 points per game from their last 28 away games (10W 7D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.27 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
Auxerre (Home) vs Bordeaux (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Auxerre vs Bordeaux Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 19W 16D 21L in their last 56 games (1.30 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 26W 14D 16L in their last 56 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Bordeaux away?
Auxerre's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.39 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 15 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Auxerre
0
Draws
0
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Bordeaux H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Bordeaux?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 2, Bordeaux have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Bordeaux last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 January 2024: Auxerre 3-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Bordeaux?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 54%, Bordeaux 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Auxerre) and 43% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux in 32%; Auxerre have failed to score in 29% of games; Bordeaux in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Bordeaux Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Bordeaux matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Auxerre's recent matches and 39% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Bordeaux matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Auxerre's recent games and 43% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Bordeaux matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Auxerre's recent matches and 75% of Bordeaux's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bordeaux.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Bordeaux 3-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.80 xG and Bordeaux 1.21 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.30 / defence 1.08 against Bordeaux attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 19/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 51% | Draw 23% | Bordeaux 26%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 52%, Bordeaux 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Bordeaux's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.30 PPG, Bordeaux 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm. Bordeaux (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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