Toulouse 2-2 Marseille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Marseille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Toulouse welcome Marseille to Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 21 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Toulouse have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Toulouse's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Marseille stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Marseille's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Toulouse have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Toulouse, 2 for Marseille and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Toulouse 0–0 Marseille — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Toulouse trading profile (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Marseille trading profile (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 56% versus Marseille 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 58% | Marseille 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Toulouse surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Marseille have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.42 xG and Marseille 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.982 / defence 1.034 | Marseille attack 0.987 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.298. Data: built from Toulouse's last 67 games and Marseille's last 66.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 39% | Draw 26% | Marseille 35%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.56 | Draw 3.79 | Marseille 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Toulouse 70% (last 10 home games) | Marseille 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 39% | Draw 26% | Marseille 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Toulouse 1.42 / Marseille 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.982 / def 1.034 | Marseille attack 0.987 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Marseille xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Toulouse vs Marseille FAQs
What time does Toulouse vs Marseille kick off?
Toulouse vs Marseille kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Marseille?
Toulouse 2 - 2 Marseille.
Where is Toulouse vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Marseille part of?
Toulouse vs Marseille is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 30) (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 39% chance of winning, Marseille a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Toulouse and Marseille will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Toulouse vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.98x the league average against Marseille's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Marseille's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Toulouse's last 67 games and Marseille's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.79
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.75
1.32
Marseille xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
8%
12.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Toulouse vs Marseille Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.32 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Toulouse's recent record stands at 22W 17D 27L from 66 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Marseille, meanwhile, have gone 32W 16D 18L across 66 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Marseille by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Toulouse heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 9W 11D 12L from their last 32 home games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Marseille's away record stands at 14W 6D 12L across their last 32 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 1.64 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Current Season
Marseille
Current Season
Toulouse (Home) vs Marseille (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Toulouse
Current Season
Marseille
Current Season
❓ Toulouse vs Marseille Form FAQs
What form are Toulouse and Marseille in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 22W 17D 27L in their last 66 games (1.26 PPG), while Marseille have gone 32W 16D 18L in their last 66 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Marseille away?
Marseille's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.19 PPG; Marseille away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Marseille have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Dec 2022, when Marseille won Marseille 6-1 Toulouse.
Toulouse's record when hosting Marseille specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Toulouse
3
Draws
6
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Toulouse vs Marseille H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Marseille?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Toulouse have won 0, Marseille have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Marseille last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Marseille 2-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 62%, Marseille 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Toulouse) and 50% (Marseille).
On the defensive side: Toulouse have failed to score in 28% of games; Marseille in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Toulouse vs Marseille Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Toulouse and Marseille matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Toulouse's games and 50% of Marseille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Toulouse and Marseille matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Toulouse's recent games and 50% of Marseille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Marseille matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Toulouse's recent matches and 72% of Marseille's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse and Marseille share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 30, as Toulouse and Marseille drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.42 xG and Marseille 1.32 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Marseille attack 0.99 / defence 1.12, drawn from 67/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 39% | Draw 26% | Marseille 35%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 58%, Marseille 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Marseille's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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