Lens 1-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lens (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lens face Clermont Foot.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Clermont Foot travel to Stade Bollaert-Delelis to take on Lens. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lens stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lens at Stade Bollaert-Delelis this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Lens are significantly better at Stade Bollaert-Delelis than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Clermont Foot have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Lens have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Lens hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Clermont Foot, with 1 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 3–0 with Lens winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lens and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Lens trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Clermont Foot trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lens 51% versus Clermont Foot 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lens 51% | Clermont Foot 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lens 1.51 xG and Clermont Foot 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lens attack 1.078 / defence 1.012 | Clermont Foot attack 0.735 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.306. Data: 67 Lens games / 67 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lens 49% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 23%. Fair-value odds: Lens 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Clermont Foot 4.35. Lens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lens as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Lens 50% | Clermont Foot 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lens vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lens 49% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Lens 1.51 / Clermont Foot 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Lens attack 1.078 / def 1.012 | Clermont Foot attack 0.735 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Lens (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Lens xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Clermont Foot xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lens vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Lens vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What was the final score in Lens vs Clermont Foot?
Lens 1 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Lens vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What competition is Lens vs Clermont Foot part of?
Lens vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lens vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Lens a 49% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lens vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lens and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Lens vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Clermont Foot?
Record (5 meetings): Lens 4W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Lens and Clermont Foot in?
Lens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lens's attack rating (1.08) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Lens's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lens Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.55
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Lens xG
Total xG
2.48
0.97
Clermont Foot xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
5%
19.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lens vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lens and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Lens and 0.97 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Lens vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lens's recent record stands at 37W 16D 14L from 67 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 21W 18D 28L across 67 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lens by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lens have managed 24W 4D 5L from 33 games — 2.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 10W 10D 13L across 33 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lens are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.99 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Lens have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lens
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lens and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Lens have gone 37W 16D 14L in their last 67 games (1.90 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 21W 18D 28L in their last 67 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lens at home or Clermont Foot away?
Lens's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lens at home: 2.30 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Lens or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lens have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lens have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Mar 2023, when Lens won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lens's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Lens
1
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Lens have won 5, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lens and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Lens 1-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Lens and Clermont Foot?
Lens have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lens 54%, Clermont Foot 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lens) and 52% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Lens keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lens home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lens play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Lens's games and 61% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lens vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Lens's recent games and 52% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lens and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Lens have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lens edge out Clermont Foot 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lens beat Clermont Foot 1-0 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lens 1.51 xG and Clermont Foot 0.97 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lens attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Clermont Foot attack 0.73 / defence 1.05, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lens 49% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 23%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lens 51%, Clermont Foot 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lens's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lens arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Lens (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.