Rennes vs Le Havre – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rennes (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rennes face Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 31 as Rennes welcome Le Havre to Roazhon Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Rennes have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rennes have posted 8W 1D 1L at Roazhon Park — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Rennes are significantly better at Roazhon Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Rennes are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rennes register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Le Havre in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Rennes: 3 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Le Havre, with 3 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Rennes and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Rennes in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 60% versus Le Havre 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 74% | Le Havre 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 2.32 xG and Le Havre 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.211 / defence 0.772 | Le Havre attack 1.120 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.307. Rennes's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Rennes games / 43 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 63% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 16%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Le Havre 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rennes at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 60% | Le Havre 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 63% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 62% | xG Rennes 2.32 / Le Havre 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.211 / def 0.772 | Le Havre attack 1.120 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Rennes (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Le Havre xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Le Havre kick off?
Rennes vs Le Havre is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Roazhon Park.
Where is Rennes vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Le Havre part of?
Rennes vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 63% chance of winning, Le Havre a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Rennes and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Le Havre?
Record (6 meetings): Rennes 3W | Draws 3 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Rennes and Le Havre in?
Rennes (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Le Havre (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.21) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.83
16%
6.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Rennes xG
Total xG
3.45
1.13
Le Havre xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
6.17
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
10%
10.20
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
2%
62.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Rennes and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Rennes and 1.13 for Le Havre, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Rennes have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 22W 9D 12L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre's form line: 7W 16D 20L from 43 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rennes are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rennes have posted 2.19 PPG from 21 outings (14W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Le Havre have gone 2W 7D 12L from 21 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rennes are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.95 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rennes have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 22W 9D 12L in their last 43 games (1.74 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 7W 16D 20L in their last 43 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Le Havre away?
Rennes's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.19 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rennes and Le Havre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when Rennes won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rennes's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rennes
3
Draws
0
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Rennes have won 3, Le Havre have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Rennes 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Le Havre?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 67%, Le Havre 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Rennes) and 29% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Le Havre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rennes's games and 48% of Le Havre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rennes vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Rennes's recent games and 29% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Le Havre tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.