Paris Saint Germain 3-3 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Princes plays host to Paris Saint Germain versus Le Havre in Ligue 1 (matchday 31). Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Paris Saint Germain have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Paris Saint Germain at home: 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Le Havre (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Le Havre away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in Paris Saint Germain's favour (2.20 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Paris Saint Germain's last 10 home games and Le Havre's last 10 away games) — Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Le Havre in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Paris Saint Germain, 0 for Le Havre and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Paris Saint Germain 2–0 Le Havre — a Paris Saint Germain win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 60% versus Le Havre 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 66% | Le Havre 34%). Note also that Le Havre surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Paris Saint Germain recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 2.27 xG and Le Havre 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.467 / defence 0.973 | Le Havre attack 0.725 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.315. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack rating of 1.467 — their 2.27 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Paris Saint Germain's last 68 games and Le Havre's last 30.
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 67% | Draw 19% | Le Havre 14%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.49 | Draw 5.22 | Le Havre 7.34. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (67%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Paris Saint Germain's last 10 home games and Le Havre's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Paris Saint Germain 90% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 31 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 67% | Draw 19% | Le Havre 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Paris Saint Germain 2.27 / Le Havre 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.467 / def 0.973 | Le Havre attack 0.725 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Le Havre xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Paris Saint Germain 3 - 3 Le Havre.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 67% chance of winning, Le Havre a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Paris Saint Germain's attack rating (1.47) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.72x) against Paris Saint Germain's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Paris Saint Germain's last 68 games and Le Havre's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.22
14%
7.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
3.20
0.93
Le Havre xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
7.34
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
10%
9.66
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
1%
70.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.93 for Le Havre, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Paris Saint Germain's recent record stands at 47W 13D 8L from 68 games, a 2.26 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 26W 25D 17L across 68 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Le Havre heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Paris Saint Germain have managed 22W 7D 5L from their last 34 home games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 10W 16D 8L across their last 34 away games, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.07 scored and 0.84 conceded. Paris Saint Germain's scoring rate against Le Havre's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Le Havre in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
Paris Saint Germain (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris Saint Germain
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 47W 13D 8L in their last 68 games (2.26 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 26W 25D 17L in their last 68 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Le Havre away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.15 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Le Havre in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Paris Saint Germain have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won Le Havre 1-5 Paris Saint Germain on 30 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris Saint Germain have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Paris Saint Germain
1
Draws
0
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris Saint Germain have won 6, Le Havre have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Le Havre 1-5 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 68%, Le Havre 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Paris Saint Germain) and 35% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 35%; Le Havre in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 47% of Le Havre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Paris Saint Germain's recent games and 35% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 56% of Le Havre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre finished level at 3-3 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.27 xG and Le Havre 0.93 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Le Havre outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.47 / defence 0.97 against Le Havre attack 0.72 / defence 1.17, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 67% | Draw 19% | Le Havre 14%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 66%, Le Havre 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.51. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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