Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Toulouse travel to Parc des Princes to take on Paris Saint Germain. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Parc des Princes, Paris Saint Germain have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Toulouse have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Paris Saint Germain at 2.00 PPG versus Toulouse's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Paris Saint Germain have won 2, Toulouse 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Paris Saint Germain in-play and half-time data (69 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (69 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 61% versus Toulouse 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 67% | Toulouse 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 1.71 xG and Toulouse 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.409 / defence 1.067 | Toulouse attack 1.036 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.397. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.409 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 69 Paris Saint Germain games / 70 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 41% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 34%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Toulouse 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Paris Saint Germain 100% | Toulouse 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 41% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Paris Saint Germain 1.71 / Toulouse 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.409 / def 1.067 | Toulouse attack 1.036 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Toulouse xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Paris Saint Germain 1 - 3 Toulouse.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 41% chance of winning, Toulouse a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse?
Record (3 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 2W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 0W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Toulouse (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Paris Saint Germain's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Paris Saint Germain's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
41%
2.41
24%
4.16
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
3.25
1.54
Toulouse xG
2.41
41%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
9%
11.29
6%
16.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.54 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 69 outings, Paris Saint Germain have picked up 2.25 PPG on a 47W 14D 8L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Toulouse's form line: 23W 18D 28L from 69 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 0.99 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Toulouse.
Venue Form
On home soil, Paris Saint Germain have posted 2.11 PPG from 35 outings (22W 8D 5L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 14W 6D 15L from 35 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.39 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.29 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 47W 14D 8L in their last 69 games (2.25 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 23W 18D 28L in their last 69 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Toulouse away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.11 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Toulouse in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Paris Saint Germain have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2022, when Paris Saint Germain won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Paris Saint Germain's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Paris Saint Germain
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 6, Toulouse have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 69%, Toulouse 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Paris Saint Germain and 63% for Toulouse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 51% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 63% of Toulouse's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Paris Saint Germain.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Paris Saint Germain 1-3 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 1.71 xG and Toulouse 1.54 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Toulouse outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.41 / defence 1.07 against Toulouse attack 1.04 / defence 0.85, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 41% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 34%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 67%, Toulouse 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Toulouse's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Toulouse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.