Nantes 1-1 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantes vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Nantes welcome Nice to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nantes have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nantes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nantes's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 games at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nice stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nice away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Nantes) versus 1.30 (Nice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Nantes, 2 for Nice and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Nantes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nantes in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Nice in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 46% versus Nice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 46% | Nice 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.21 xG and Nice 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.828 / defence 1.124 | Nice attack 0.956 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.346. Data: 41 Nantes games / 41 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 28% | Draw 33% | Nice 39%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Nice 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 50% | Nice 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 28% | Draw 33% | Nice 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Nantes 1.21 / Nice 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.828 / def 1.124 | Nice attack 0.956 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Nice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Nice xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Nice kick off?
Nantes vs Nice kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Nice?
Nantes 1 - 1 Nice.
Where is Nantes vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Nice part of?
Nantes vs Nice is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 28% chance of winning, Nice a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Nantes and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Nice?
Record (6 meetings): Nantes 2W | Draws 2 | Nice 2W.
What form are Nantes and Nice in?
Nantes (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Nice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Nantes vs Nice?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nantes's attack at 0.83x the league average against Nice's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
28%
3.60
33%
3.01
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.65
1.45
Nice xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
7%
15.33
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Nantes and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Nantes and 1.45 for Nice, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nantes's recent record stands at 11W 9D 21L from 41 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nantes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 11L across 41 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nice by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 4W 4D 12L from 20 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nice's away record stands at 7W 6D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nantes are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.34 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Nice in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Early Season
Nice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Nice in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 11W 9D 21L in their last 41 games (1.02 PPG), while Nice have gone 17W 13D 11L in their last 41 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Nice away?
Nice's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 0.80 PPG; Nice away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Nantes or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Nice in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantes and Nice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Nice have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jan 2026, when Nice won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nantes's record when hosting Nice specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Nantes
3
Draws
4
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Nantes have won 3, Nice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Nantes 1-4 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 50%, Nice 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nantes) and 45% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Nice in 35%; Nantes have failed to score in 35% of games; Nice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nantes's recent matches and 45% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nantes's recent games and 45% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Nice tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Nice in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nantes and Nice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 8, as Nantes and Nice drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.21 xG and Nice 1.45 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.83 / defence 1.12 against Nice attack 0.96 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 28% | Draw 33% | Nice 39%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, Nice 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Nice's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.