Lyon 1-2 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lyon vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lyon host Monaco at Parc Olympique Lyonnais in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lyon have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon's home record at Parc Olympique Lyonnais: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
Monaco — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monaco's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Lyon) versus 2.00 (Monaco). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 5 wins apiece for Lyon, 4 for Monaco and 0 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 3–1 with Lyon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lyon in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Monaco in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 55% versus Monaco 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 58% | Monaco 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.34 xG and Monaco 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.055 / defence 0.793 | Monaco attack 1.137 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.187. Lyon's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Lyon games / 60 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 43% | Draw 27% | Monaco 30%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Monaco 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lyon 50% | Monaco 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 43% | Draw 27% | Monaco 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Lyon 1.34 / Monaco 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.055 / def 0.793 | Monaco attack 1.137 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Lyon (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Monaco xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Monaco kick off?
Lyon vs Monaco kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Monaco?
Lyon 1 - 2 Monaco.
Where is Lyon vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
What competition is Lyon vs Monaco part of?
Lyon vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 43% chance of winning, Monaco a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lyon and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Monaco?
Record (9 meetings): Lyon 5W | Draws 0 | Monaco 4W.
What form are Lyon and Monaco in?
Lyon (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Monaco (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lyon's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.66
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.41
1.07
Monaco xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
8%
12.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lyon and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Lyon and 1.07 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon come into this having played 60 games, going 31W 11D 18L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Monaco sit at 1.73 PPG from 60 outings (31W 11D 18L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lyon on 1.73 PPG, Monaco on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lyon's home form reads 20W 3D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Lyon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Monaco have taken 1.28 points per game from 29 outings (10W 7D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monaco's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.80 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 60%.
Defensively: Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Monaco in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 31W 11D 18L in their last 60 games (1.73 PPG), while Monaco have gone 31W 11D 18L in their last 60 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Monaco away?
Lyon's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 2.17 PPG; Monaco away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Lyon or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Monaco in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lyon's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lyon
0
Draws
5
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Monaco?
From 10 meetings on record, Lyon have won 5, Monaco have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Lyon 1-2 Monaco.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 52%, Monaco 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Lyon and 62% for Monaco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lyon keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Lyon's games and 66% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lyon vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Lyon's matches and 62% of Monaco's.
Do Lyon and Monaco tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Monaco in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Monaco defy the odds to beat Lyon 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Lyon 1-2 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.34 xG and Monaco 1.07 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Monaco outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.05 / defence 0.79 against Monaco attack 1.14 / defence 0.88, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 43% | Draw 27% | Monaco 30%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Monaco win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 58%, Monaco 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Monaco's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.73 PPG, Monaco 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.