Auxerre 1-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Toulouse (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Auxerre face Toulouse.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Toulouse make the trip to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to face Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 September 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Toulouse (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Toulouse have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Toulouse are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Auxerre have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Toulouse in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Toulouse hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Toulouse have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 55% versus Toulouse 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 60% | Toulouse 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.21 xG and Toulouse 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.824 / defence 1.021 | Toulouse attack 1.047 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.723 / away 1.230. Data: 38 Auxerre games / 38 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 34% | Draw 27% | Toulouse 39%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Toulouse 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 60% | Toulouse 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 34% | Draw 27% | Toulouse 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Auxerre 1.21 / Toulouse 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.824 / def 1.021 | Toulouse attack 1.047 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.723 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Toulouse xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Toulouse kick off?
Auxerre vs Toulouse kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Auxerre 1 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Auxerre vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Toulouse part of?
Auxerre vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 34% chance of winning, Toulouse a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Auxerre and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Toulouse?
Record (6 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 2 | Toulouse 4W.
What form are Auxerre and Toulouse in?
Auxerre (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Toulouse (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (1.05x) against Auxerre's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.73
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.52
1.31
Toulouse xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
9%
10.93
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.31 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Auxerre come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 9D 17L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 1.26 PPG from 38 outings (13W 9D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Auxerre against 1.26 for Toulouse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Auxerre's home form reads 8W 6D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Auxerre are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.34 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Toulouse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Toulouse away?
Auxerre's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.58 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Toulouse in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won 6-0 on 16 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Auxerre
3
Draws
4
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Toulouse have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Toulouse 0-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 47%, Toulouse 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Auxerre) and 53% (Toulouse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Toulouse in 37%; Toulouse in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Auxerre's recent matches and 42% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Auxerre's matches and 53% of Toulouse's.
Shock result as Auxerre defy the odds to beat Toulouse 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Toulouse 1-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.21 xG and Toulouse 1.31 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Toulouse landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Toulouse attack 1.05 / defence 0.85, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 34% | Draw 27% | Toulouse 39%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 60%, Toulouse 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Toulouse's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.18 PPG, Toulouse 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.