Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Auxerre face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Auxerre welcome Paris Saint Germain to Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Paris Saint Germain's 2.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Auxerre's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Paris Saint Germain have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Auxerre's 0 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
It is worth noting that Paris Saint Germain have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Paris Saint Germain in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 50% versus Paris Saint Germain 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 50% | Paris Saint Germain 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.94 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.775 / defence 0.963 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.507 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.312. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Paris Saint Germain's defence strength of 0.769 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.507 — the away xG of 1.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Auxerre games / 44 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 17% | Draw 23% | Paris Saint Germain 59%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 5.88 | Draw 4.35 | Paris Saint Germain 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 50% | Paris Saint Germain 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 17% | Draw 23% | Paris Saint Germain 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Auxerre 0.94 / Paris Saint Germain 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.775 / def 0.963 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.507 / def 0.769 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Paris Saint Germain xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
Where is Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 17% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (6 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 1 | Paris Saint Germain 5W.
What form are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain in?
Auxerre (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
17%
5.75
23%
4.30
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.84
1.91
Paris Saint Germain xG
5.75
17%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
15%
6.72
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
3%
38.62
23%
4.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.91 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 11D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.25 PPG from 44 outings (31W 6D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Auxerre's home form reads 8W 5D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.18 points per game from 22 outings (15W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.18 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 11W 11D 22L in their last 44 games (1.00 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 31W 6D 7L in their last 44 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.32 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Paris Saint Germain have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Paris Saint Germain won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Auxerre
1
Draws
5
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Auxerre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 41%, Paris Saint Germain 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Auxerre) and 59% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Paris Saint Germain in 36%; Auxerre have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Paris Saint Germain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Auxerre's recent matches and 54% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Auxerre's recent games and 59% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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