Auxerre 1-2 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Auxerre at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Auxerre host Le Havre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Auxerre — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Le Havre's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Auxerre have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Auxerre, 2 for Le Havre and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with Le Havre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 54% versus Le Havre 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 55% | Le Havre 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.46 xG and Le Havre 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.850 / defence 0.954 | Le Havre attack 1.075 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.407. Data: 31 Auxerre games / 65 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 38% | Draw 25% | Le Havre 37%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Le Havre 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Le Havre 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 38% | Draw 25% | Le Havre 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Auxerre 1.46 / Le Havre 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.850 / def 0.954 | Le Havre attack 1.075 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Le Havre xG
59%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Le Havre kick off?
Auxerre vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Auxerre 1 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Auxerre vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Le Havre part of?
Auxerre vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 38% chance of winning, Le Havre a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Auxerre and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Le Havre?
Record (3 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 0 | Le Havre 2W.
What form are Auxerre and Le Havre in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.85x the league average against Le Havre's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
38%
2.64
25%
4.03
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.90
1.44
Le Havre xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
9%
11.18
9%
11.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.44 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre's recent record stands at 31W 17D 17L from 65 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 35L across 65 games — 0.92 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Le Havre heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 19W 9D 4L from 32 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 6W 11D 15L across 32 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.05 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 31W 17D 17L in their last 65 games (1.69 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 15W 15D 35L in their last 65 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Le Havre away?
Auxerre's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.06 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Le Havre in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Auxerre's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
1
Draws
4
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Le Havre have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 47%, Le Havre 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Auxerre) and 50% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Le Havre in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Auxerre's recent matches and 56% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Auxerre's recent games and 50% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Le Havre tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Auxerre 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Auxerre 1-2 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.46 xG and Le Havre 1.44 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.85 / defence 0.95 against Le Havre attack 1.07 / defence 1.16, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 38% | Draw 25% | Le Havre 37%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 55%, Le Havre 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Le Havre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.