SJK 2-3 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SJK at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SJK vs Kooteepee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Kooteepee travel to OmaSP Stadion to take on SJK. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 15 August 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SJK stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's home record at OmaSP Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Kooteepee have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Kooteepee have posted 1W 2D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.56 PPG. Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.56 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (SJK) versus 1.10 (Kooteepee). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for SJK, 0 for Kooteepee and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2023, ended 2–0 with SJK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
SJK in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Kooteepee in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 50% versus Kooteepee 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (SJK 44% | Kooteepee 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.47 xG and Kooteepee 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 0.985 / defence 1.018 | Kooteepee attack 0.645 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.135. Data: 40 SJK games / 18 Kooteepee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 53% | Draw 29% | Kooteepee 18%. Fair-value odds: SJK 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Kooteepee 5.56. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SJK are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SJK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SJK 50% | Kooteepee 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 53% | Draw 29% | Kooteepee 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG SJK 1.47 / Kooteepee 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 0.985 / def 1.018 | Kooteepee attack 0.645 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: SJK (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
SJK xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Kooteepee xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Kooteepee kick off?
SJK vs Kooteepee kicked off at 16:00 on Tuesday 15 August 2023 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Kooteepee?
SJK 2 - 3 Kooteepee.
Where is SJK vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Kooteepee part of?
SJK vs Kooteepee is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 53% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both SJK and Kooteepee will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Kooteepee?
Record (3 meetings): SJK 2W | Draws 1 | Kooteepee 0W.
What form are SJK and Kooteepee in?
SJK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Kooteepee (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SJK's attack rating (0.98) and Kooteepee's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kooteepee's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
53%
1.88
29%
3.40
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
SJK xG
Total xG
2.22
0.75
Kooteepee xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
4%
24.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.0 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are SJK and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for SJK and 0.75 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Kooteepee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SJK's recent record stands at 10W 5D 3L from 18 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kooteepee, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 9L across 18 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SJK by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kooteepee heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SJK have managed 6W 1D 2L from 9 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kooteepee's away record stands at 1W 2D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SJK are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Kooteepee are on 0.78 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: SJK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Kooteepee in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
Kooteepee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Kooteepee in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 10W 5D 3L in their last 18 games (1.94 PPG), while Kooteepee have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Kooteepee away?
SJK's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 2.11 PPG; Kooteepee away: 0.56 PPG.
Have SJK or Kooteepee been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Kooteepee in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SJK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2025, when SJK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SJK's record when hosting Kooteepee specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SJK
1
Draws
1
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Kooteepee?
From 6 meetings on record, SJK have won 4, Kooteepee have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Kooteepee last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when SJK 3-0 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Kooteepee?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 56%, Kooteepee 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (SJK) and 33% (Kooteepee).
On the defensive side: SJK keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Kooteepee in 33%; Kooteepee in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Kooteepee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of SJK's recent matches and 33% of Kooteepee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SJK vs Kooteepee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of SJK's recent games and 33% of Kooteepee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SJK and Kooteepee tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Kooteepee in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kooteepee defy the odds to beat SJK 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kooteepee beat SJK 2-3 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.47 xG and Kooteepee 0.75 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Kooteepee outscored their 0.75 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against Kooteepee attack 0.65 / defence 1.19, drawn from 40/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 53% | Draw 29% | Kooteepee 18%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Kooteepee win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 44%, Kooteepee 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Kooteepee's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Kooteepee winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SJK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kooteepee (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.