KuPS 3-0 SJK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates KuPS at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this KuPS vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
KuPS and SJK meet at Väre Areena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KuPS have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, KuPS have posted 6W 0D 4L at Väre Areena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Väre Areena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SJK's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form favours the hosts. KuPS's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of SJK's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 39% versus SJK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 39% | SJK 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.04 xG and SJK 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 0.963 / defence 0.710 | SJK attack 1.095 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.237. KuPS's defence rating of 0.710 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 KuPS games / 41 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 36% | Draw 33% | SJK 32%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | SJK 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: KuPS 20% | SJK 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 36% | Draw 33% | SJK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG KuPS 1.04 / SJK 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 0.963 / def 0.710 | SJK attack 1.095 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: KuPS (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.96
SJK xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs SJK kick off?
KuPS vs SJK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs SJK?
KuPS 3 - 0 SJK.
Where is KuPS vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs SJK part of?
KuPS vs SJK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 36% chance of winning, SJK a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both KuPS and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and SJK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KuPS and SJK in?
KuPS (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. SJK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
KuPS's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — SJK's attack (1.09x) against KuPS's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
36%
2.81
33%
3.05
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.00
0.96
SJK xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are KuPS and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for KuPS and 0.96 for SJK, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KuPS come into this having played 46 games, going 29W 8D 9L for 2.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SJK sit at 1.46 PPG from 46 outings (19W 10D 17L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of SJK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
KuPS's home form reads 15W 4D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, SJK have taken 1.13 points per game from 23 outings (7W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KuPS are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.24 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and SJK in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 29W 8D 9L in their last 46 games (2.07 PPG), while SJK have gone 19W 10D 17L in their last 46 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or SJK away?
KuPS's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.13 PPG; SJK away: 1.13 PPG.
Have KuPS or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, SJK in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
KuPS
4
Draws
0
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 6, SJK have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when SJK 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and SJK?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 35%, SJK 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for KuPS and 30% for SJK.
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; SJK in 30%; KuPS have failed to score in 26% of games; SJK in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of KuPS's recent matches and 39% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of KuPS's recent games and 30% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and SJK tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, SJK in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant KuPS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SJK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat SJK 3-0 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 20, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.04 xG and SJK 0.96 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. KuPS beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SJK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 0.96 / defence 0.71 against SJK attack 1.09 / defence 0.89, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 36% | Draw 33% | SJK 32%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 39%, SJK 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
SJK's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.46. Form held, and they took the win. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.