KuPS 2-4 Ilves – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates KuPS at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this KuPS vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vare Areena plays host to KuPS versus Ilves in Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 14 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KuPS have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Vare Areena this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ilves (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for KuPS, 2.30 for Ilves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: KuPS 3W, Ilves 3W, 0D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2025, ended 0–3 with Ilves winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 55% versus Ilves 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 55% | Ilves 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.70 xG and Ilves 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.235 / defence 0.833 | Ilves attack 1.154 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.652. Data: 44 KuPS games / 44 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 40% | Draw 25% | Ilves 35%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Ilves 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: KuPS 40% | Ilves 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Vare Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 40% | Draw 25% | Ilves 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG KuPS 1.70 / Ilves 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.235 / def 0.833 | Ilves attack 1.154 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.652 • Poisson stance: KuPS (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Ilves xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Ilves kick off?
KuPS vs Ilves kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Vare Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Ilves?
KuPS 2 - 4 Ilves.
Where is KuPS vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Vare Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Ilves part of?
KuPS vs Ilves is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 40% chance of winning, Ilves a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both KuPS and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Ilves?
Record (6 meetings): KuPS 3W | Draws 0 | Ilves 3W.
What form are KuPS and Ilves in?
KuPS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Ilves (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
KuPS's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (1.15x) against KuPS's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
40%
2.50
25%
4.03
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
KuPS xG
Total xG
3.29
1.59
Ilves xG
2.50
40%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
18%
5.49
Win to Nil
8%
12.22
6%
15.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are KuPS and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for KuPS and 1.59 for Ilves, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KuPS come into this having played 49 games, going 30W 10D 9L for 2.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 2.02 PPG from 49 outings (30W 9D 10L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.04 PPG for KuPS against 2.02 for Ilves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
KuPS's home form reads 20W 0D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.04 PPG overall — KuPS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 1.71 points per game from 24 outings (12W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KuPS are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 2.10 scored and 1.10 conceded. Ilves's attacking output running into KuPS's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Ilves in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Ilves in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 30W 10D 9L in their last 49 games (2.04 PPG), while Ilves have gone 30W 9D 10L in their last 49 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Ilves away?
KuPS's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.50 PPG; Ilves away: 1.71 PPG.
Have KuPS or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ilves in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
KuPS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
1
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Ilves have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when KuPS 4-3 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Ilves?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Ilves see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 46%, Ilves 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (KuPS) and 38% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Ilves in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of KuPS's recent matches and 38% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of KuPS's recent games and 38% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and Ilves tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ilves in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ilves cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over KuPS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat KuPS 2-4 at Vare Areena, Championship Round - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.70 xG and Ilves 1.59 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Ilves outscored their 1.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.24 / defence 0.83 against Ilves attack 1.15 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 40% | Draw 25% | Ilves 35%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Ilves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 55%, Ilves 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Ilves's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KuPS 2.04 PPG, Ilves 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. KuPS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.