Haka 4-3 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Haka face Ilves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ilves travel to Tehtaan kenttä to take on Haka in Veikkausliiga (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Monday 15 July 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Haka — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Haka at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ilves stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ilves away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Haka at 1.90 PPG versus Ilves's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Haka have won 3, Ilves 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 May 2024, ended Haka 0–5 Ilves — a Ilves win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Ilves in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 61% versus Ilves 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 56% | Ilves 51%). Note also that Ilves surrender HT leads in 41% of cases while Haka recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.16 xG and Ilves 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.028 / defence 0.794 | Ilves attack 0.944 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.417. Ilves bring a tight defence (rating 0.736, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Haka's projected output down. Haka have a tight defence (rating 0.794), which is pulling Ilves's projected output down. Data: built from Haka's last 36 games and Ilves's last 37.
Result probabilities: Haka 36% | Draw 33% | Ilves 31%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.76 | Draw 3.06 | Ilves 3.21. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haka are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Haka 50% (last 10 home games) | Ilves 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 15 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Monday 15 July 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 36% | Draw 33% | Ilves 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Haka 1.16 / Ilves 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.028 / def 0.794 | Ilves attack 0.944 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Haka (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Ilves xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Haka vs Ilves FAQs
What time does Haka vs Ilves kick off?
Haka vs Ilves kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Monday 15 July 2024 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Ilves?
Haka 4 - 3 Ilves.
Where is Haka vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Ilves part of?
Haka vs Ilves is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 15) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 36% chance of winning, Ilves a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Haka and Ilves will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Haka vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Haka's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Haka's last 36 games and Ilves's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
36%
2.76
33%
3.06
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Haka xG
Total xG
2.22
1.06
Ilves xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Haka vs Ilves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Haka and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Haka and 1.06 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haka come into this having played 41 games, going 14W 14D 13L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.41 PPG from 41 outings (15W 13D 13L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haka on 1.37 PPG, Ilves on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Haka's home form reads 8W 11D 1L across their last 20 home games, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 1.35 points per game from their last 20 away games (7W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Haka are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.56 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
Ilves
Blended
Haka (Home) vs Ilves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Haka
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Haka vs Ilves Form FAQs
What form are Haka and Ilves in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 14W 14D 13L in their last 41 games (1.37 PPG), while Ilves have gone 15W 13D 13L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Ilves away?
Haka's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.75 PPG; Ilves away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Haka or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Ilves in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 28 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ilves have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 May 2024, when Ilves won Ilves 5-0 Haka.
Haka's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haka
2
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Haka vs Ilves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Ilves?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Haka have won 4, Ilves have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Ilves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 June 2025: Haka 0-4 Ilves.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 70%, Ilves 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Haka) and 35% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Ilves in 35%; Ilves in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Haka vs Ilves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Haka and Ilves matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Haka's games and 40% of Ilves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Haka and Ilves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Haka's recent games and 35% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and Ilves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Haka's recent matches and 65% of Ilves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Haka edge out Ilves 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat Ilves 4-3 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.16 xG and Ilves 1.06 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Haka beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ilves outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.03 / defence 0.79 against Ilves attack 0.94 / defence 0.74, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 36% | Draw 33% | Ilves 31%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 56%, Ilves 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Ilves's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.37 PPG, Ilves 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haka win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.