Mariehamn 0-3 Haka – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Mariehamn welcome Haka to Wiklöf Holding Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 July 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Mariehamn — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Wiklöf Holding Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Haka have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Haka — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mariehamn register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Haka in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Mariehamn have won 3, Haka 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Jun 2024, ended 0–2 with Haka winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mariehamn trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Haka trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 55% versus Haka 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 50% | Haka 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.46 xG and Haka 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.879 / defence 0.976 | Haka attack 0.895 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.302. Data: 35 Mariehamn games / 35 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 43% | Draw 30% | Haka 28%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Haka 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mariehamn at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Haka (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 60% | Haka 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 43% | Draw 30% | Haka 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Mariehamn 1.46 / Haka 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.879 / def 0.976 | Haka attack 0.895 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Haka xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Haka kick off?
Mariehamn vs Haka kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Haka?
Mariehamn 0 - 3 Haka.
Where is Mariehamn vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Haka part of?
Mariehamn vs Haka is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 43% chance of winning, Haka a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mariehamn and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Haka?
Record (6 meetings): Mariehamn 3W | Draws 1 | Haka 2W.
What form are Mariehamn and Haka in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Haka (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mariehamn's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
43%
2.35
30%
3.35
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.59
1.14
Haka xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
6%
15.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.14 for Haka, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 10W 11D 19L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haka's form line: 13W 14D 13L from 40 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mariehamn on 1.02 PPG, Haka on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 1.11 PPG from 19 outings (5W 6D 8L).
On the road, Haka have gone 5W 2D 12L from 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haka's season.
The Goals Picture
Mariehamn are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.35 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Haka in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Haka have gone 13W 14D 13L in their last 40 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Haka away?
Mariehamn's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.11 PPG; Haka away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mariehamn and Haka runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 13 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2024, when Haka won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Haka specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mariehamn
3
Draws
3
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 4, Haka have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2025, when Mariehamn 1-1 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Haka?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 47%, Haka 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Mariehamn) and 68% (Haka). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 47% of games; Haka in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 53% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Mariehamn's matches and 68% of Haka's.
Do Mariehamn and Haka tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Haka in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Haka run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat Mariehamn 0-3 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.46 xG and Haka 1.14 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Mariehamn fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Haka outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against Haka attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 43% | Draw 30% | Haka 28%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Haka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 50%, Haka 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haka's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.02 PPG, Haka 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haka win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haka (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.