Haka 1-1 HJK Helsinki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 41%, yet the head-to-head data favours HJK Helsinki — this Haka vs HJK Helsinki fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Haka welcome HJK Helsinki to Tehtaan kenttä in Veikkausliiga (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Haka stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Haka have gone 3W 7D 0L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
HJK Helsinki — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
HJK Helsinki's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haka 1.90 PPG, HJK Helsinki 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Haka's last 10 home games and HJK Helsinki's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, HJK Helsinki have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Haka.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Jun 2023, ended Haka 1–1 HJK Helsinki — a draw.
HJK Helsinki have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Haka trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
HJK Helsinki trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 61% versus HJK Helsinki 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 56% | HJK Helsinki 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Haka surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while HJK Helsinki have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.97 xG and HJK Helsinki 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.935 / defence 1.020 | HJK Helsinki attack 1.183 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.751 / away 1.443. HJK Helsinki's defence rating of 1.202 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Haka's projected output up. Data: built from Haka's last 25 games and HJK Helsinki's last 26. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Haka 41% | Draw 26% | HJK Helsinki 32%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.42 | Draw 3.78 | HJK Helsinki 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (1.97 / 1.74) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haka at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Haka's last 10 home games and HJK Helsinki's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Haka 70% (last 10 home games) | HJK Helsinki 90% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Haka 25 games, HJK Helsinki 26) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs HJK Helsinki | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 4 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 41% | Draw 26% | HJK Helsinki 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG Haka 1.97 / HJK Helsinki 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.935 / def 1.020 | HJK Helsinki attack 1.183 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.751 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Haka (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.74
HJK Helsinki xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Haka vs HJK Helsinki FAQs
What time does Haka vs HJK Helsinki kick off?
Haka vs HJK Helsinki kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs HJK Helsinki?
Haka 1 - 1 HJK Helsinki.
Where is Haka vs HJK Helsinki being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs HJK Helsinki part of?
Haka vs HJK Helsinki is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 4) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs HJK Helsinki?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 41% chance of winning, HJK Helsinki a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs HJK Helsinki?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Haka and HJK Helsinki will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Haka vs HJK Helsinki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Haka's attack rating (0.94) and HJK Helsinki's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, HJK Helsinki's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Haka's last 25 games and HJK Helsinki's last 26, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
41%
2.42
26%
3.78
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Haka xG
Total xG
3.71
1.74
HJK Helsinki xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.77
Clean Sheet
18%
5.70
14%
7.15
Win to Nil
7%
13.82
5%
22.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Haka vs HJK Helsinki Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs HJK Helsinki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Haka and HJK Helsinki expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Haka and 1.74 for HJK Helsinki, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs HJK Helsinki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Haka have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 20W 17D 17L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
HJK Helsinki's form line: 33W 12D 9L from 54 games, 2.06 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, HJK Helsinki are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haka.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haka have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 26 home games (10W 12D 4L).
On the road, HJK Helsinki have gone 14W 8D 4L from their last 26 away games — 1.92 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Haka are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; HJK Helsinki are on 1.69 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: HJK Helsinki in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
HJK Helsinki
Blended
Haka (Home) vs HJK Helsinki (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Haka
Blended
HJK Helsinki
Blended
❓ Haka vs HJK Helsinki Form FAQs
What form are Haka and HJK Helsinki in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 20W 17D 17L in their last 54 games (1.43 PPG), while HJK Helsinki have gone 33W 12D 9L in their last 54 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or HJK Helsinki away?
HJK Helsinki's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.62 PPG; HJK Helsinki away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Haka or HJK Helsinki been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, HJK Helsinki in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 17 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: HJK Helsinki have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 May 2022, when HJK Helsinki won HJK Helsinki 4-1 Haka.
Haka's record when hosting HJK Helsinki specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Haka
2
Draws
7
HJK Helsinki
Recent Meetings
❓ Haka vs HJK Helsinki H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and HJK Helsinki?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Haka have won 1, HJK Helsinki have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and HJK Helsinki last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 August 2025: Haka 1-2 HJK Helsinki.
Who has won more matches between Haka and HJK Helsinki?
HJK Helsinki have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
HJK Helsinki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haka at 73%, HJK Helsinki at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Haka) and 50% (HJK Helsinki).
On the defensive side: HJK Helsinki in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / HJK Helsinki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Haka vs HJK Helsinki Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Haka and HJK Helsinki matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Haka's games and 65% of HJK Helsinki's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Haka and HJK Helsinki matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Haka's recent games and 50% of HJK Helsinki's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and HJK Helsinki matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Haka's recent matches and 73% of HJK Helsinki's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haka and HJK Helsinki share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 4, as Haka and HJK Helsinki drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.97 xG and HJK Helsinki 1.74 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Haka fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against HJK Helsinki attack 1.18 / defence 1.20, drawn from 25/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Haka 41% | Draw 26% | HJK Helsinki 32%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 56%, HJK Helsinki 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
HJK Helsinki's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, HJK Helsinki arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.