Gnistan 0-1 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gnistan vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 4 as Gnistan welcome SJK to Mustapekka Areena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Gnistan have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Gnistan have played only a handful of Veikkausliiga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SJK — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SJK's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gnistan 0.50 PPG, SJK 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gnistan 1.37 xG and SJK 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gnistan attack 0.927 / defence 1.078 | SJK attack 0.935 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.427. Data: 3 Gnistan games / 26 SJK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gnistan 32% | Draw 32% | SJK 35%. Fair-value odds: Gnistan 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | SJK 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SJK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 1.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gnistan vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Mustapekka Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gnistan 32% | Draw 32% | SJK 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 60% | xG Gnistan 1.37 / SJK 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Gnistan attack 0.927 / def 1.078 | SJK attack 0.935 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: SJK (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Gnistan xG
Expected Goals
1.44
SJK xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gnistan vs SJK kick off?
Gnistan vs SJK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Mustapekka Areena.
What was the final score in Gnistan vs SJK?
Gnistan 0 - 1 SJK.
Where is Gnistan vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Mustapekka Areena.
What competition is Gnistan vs SJK part of?
Gnistan vs SJK is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Gnistan vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Gnistan a 32% chance of winning, SJK a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gnistan vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Gnistan and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Gnistan vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and SJK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gnistan and SJK in?
Gnistan (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L. SJK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gnistan's attack rating (0.93) and SJK's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SJK's attack versus Gnistan's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
32%
3.10
32%
3.09
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Gnistan xG
Total xG
2.81
1.44
SJK xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
8%
13.05
9%
11.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gnistan vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Gnistan and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Gnistan and 1.44 for SJK, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Gnistan vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Gnistan have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Gnistan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SJK's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D. It's still early in the season for SJK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gnistan on 0.50 PPG, SJK on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Gnistan are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gnistan have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gnistan have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gnistan
Early Season
SJK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gnistan and SJK in coming into this match?
Gnistan have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while SJK have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Gnistan or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gnistan have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, SJK in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2025, when SJK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gnistan's record when hosting SJK specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Gnistan
1
Draws
4
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and SJK?
From 7 meetings on record, Gnistan have won 2, SJK have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gnistan and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Gnistan 3-2 SJK.
Who has won more matches between Gnistan and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gnistan home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gnistan play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Gnistan's recent matches and 50% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gnistan vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gnistan's recent games and 50% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gnistan and SJK tend to score early?
Gnistan have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, SJK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out Gnistan 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Gnistan 0-1 at Mustapekka Areena, Regular Season - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.37 xG and SJK 1.44 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gnistan fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against SJK attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 3/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gnistan 32% | Draw 32% | SJK 35%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 50%, SJK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gnistan 0.50 PPG, SJK 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. SJK conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.