Haka 0-1 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AC Oulu at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haka vs AC Oulu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haka host AC Oulu at Tehtaan kenttä in Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 September 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haka stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haka have posted 2W 0D 8L at Tehtaan kenttä — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AC Oulu — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour AC Oulu — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Haka register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, AC Oulu in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Haka have won 4, AC Oulu 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 2–3 with AC Oulu winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
AC Oulu in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haka 64% and AC Oulu 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 66% | AC Oulu 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.55 xG and AC Oulu 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.828 / defence 1.180 | AC Oulu attack 0.911 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.652. Data: 44 Haka games / 44 AC Oulu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 33% | Draw 25% | AC Oulu 43%. Fair-value odds: Haka 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | AC Oulu 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AC Oulu as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Oulu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Haka 60% | AC Oulu 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Friday 19 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 33% | Draw 25% | AC Oulu 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Haka 1.55 / AC Oulu 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.828 / def 1.180 | AC Oulu attack 0.911 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.652 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.78
AC Oulu xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs AC Oulu kick off?
Haka vs AC Oulu kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 19 September 2025 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs AC Oulu?
Haka 0 - 1 AC Oulu.
Where is Haka vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs AC Oulu part of?
Haka vs AC Oulu is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 33% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Haka and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and AC Oulu?
Record (9 meetings): Haka 4W | Draws 2 | AC Oulu 3W.
What form are Haka and AC Oulu in?
Haka (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. AC Oulu (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haka's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against AC Oulu's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, AC Oulu's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
33%
3.04
25%
4.07
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Haka xG
Total xG
3.32
1.78
AC Oulu xG
3.04
33%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
6%
17.94
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Haka and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Haka and 1.78 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Haka have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 15W 10D 25L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Oulu's form line: 13W 10D 27L from 50 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haka on 1.10 PPG, AC Oulu on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haka have posted 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (8W 4D 12L).
On the road, AC Oulu have gone 4W 5D 15L from 24 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haka are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 1.28 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; AC Oulu in 64%.
Last 50 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
AC Oulu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 15W 10D 25L in their last 50 games (1.10 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 13W 10D 27L in their last 50 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or AC Oulu away?
Haka's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.17 PPG; AC Oulu away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haka and AC Oulu runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 19 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AC Oulu go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2022, when AC Oulu won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting AC Oulu specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haka
2
Draws
4
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and AC Oulu?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 4, AC Oulu have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2025, when Haka 0-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haka at 67%, AC Oulu at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Haka and 67% for AC Oulu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play AC Oulu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Haka's games and 75% of AC Oulu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs AC Oulu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Haka's matches and 67% of AC Oulu's.
Do Haka and AC Oulu tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, AC Oulu in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AC Oulu edge out Haka 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat Haka 0-1 at Tehtaan kenttä, Relegation Round - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.55 xG and AC Oulu 1.78 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Haka fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against AC Oulu attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 33% | Draw 25% | AC Oulu 43%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 66%, AC Oulu 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
AC Oulu's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.10 PPG, AC Oulu 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Oulu win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. AC Oulu (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.