Gnistan 0-1 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gnistan face SJK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Gnistan welcome SJK to Mustapekka Areena in Veikkausliiga (matchday 4). Kick-off is Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 2 games, Gnistan have gone 0W 1D 1L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
SJK — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SJK's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gnistan 0.50 PPG, SJK 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gnistan 1.37 xG and SJK 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gnistan attack 0.927 / defence 1.078 | SJK attack 0.935 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.427. Data: built from Gnistan's last 3 games and SJK's last 26. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Gnistan 32% | Draw 32% | SJK 35%. Fair-value odds: Gnistan 3.10 | Draw 3.09 | SJK 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.37 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SJK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Gnistan's last 2 games and SJK's last 10 away games) averaging only 1.9 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's sample (Gnistan 3 games, SJK 26) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gnistan vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 4 | Venue: Mustapekka Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gnistan 32% | Draw 32% | SJK 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Gnistan 1.37 / SJK 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Gnistan attack 0.927 / def 1.078 | SJK attack 0.935 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: SJK (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Gnistan xG
Expected Goals
1.44
SJK xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gnistan vs SJK FAQs
What time does Gnistan vs SJK kick off?
Gnistan vs SJK kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Mustapekka Areena.
What was the final score in Gnistan vs SJK?
Gnistan 0 - 1 SJK.
Where is Gnistan vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Mustapekka Areena.
What competition is Gnistan vs SJK part of?
Gnistan vs SJK is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 4) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Gnistan vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Gnistan a 32% chance of winning, SJK a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gnistan vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Gnistan and SJK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gnistan vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gnistan's attack rating (0.93) and SJK's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SJK's attack versus Gnistan's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gnistan's last 3 games and SJK's last 26, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
32%
3.10
32%
3.09
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Gnistan xG
Total xG
2.81
1.44
SJK xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
8%
13.05
9%
11.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gnistan vs SJK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gnistan vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Gnistan and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Gnistan and 1.44 for SJK, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Gnistan vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Gnistan have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — D-L across the most recent five.
SJK's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gnistan on 0.50 PPG, SJK on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Gnistan are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gnistan have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gnistan have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gnistan
Early Season
SJK
Early Season
Gnistan (Home) vs SJK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gnistan
Early Season
SJK
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Gnistan vs SJK Form FAQs
What form are Gnistan and SJK in coming into this match?
Gnistan have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while SJK have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Gnistan or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gnistan have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, SJK in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2024. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was on 7 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Nov 2025, when SJK won SJK 3-0 Gnistan.
Gnistan's record when hosting SJK specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gnistan
2
Draws
4
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Gnistan vs SJK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and SJK?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Gnistan have won 2, SJK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gnistan and SJK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 August 2026: SJK 2-2 Gnistan.
Who has won more matches between Gnistan and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gnistan home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gnistan vs SJK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gnistan and SJK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Gnistan's recent matches and 50% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gnistan and SJK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gnistan's recent games and 50% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gnistan and SJK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Gnistan's recent matches and 100% of SJK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out Gnistan 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Gnistan 0-1 at Mustapekka Areena, Regular Season - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.37 xG and SJK 1.44 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gnistan fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against SJK attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 3/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gnistan 32% | Draw 32% | SJK 35%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 50%, SJK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gnistan 0.50 PPG, SJK 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. SJK conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.