Wolves 0-2 Brentford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolves at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolves vs Brentford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wolves and Brentford meet at Molineux Stadium in Premier League (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Wolves's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Wolves have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brentford (all games): 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Brentford's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Wolves's favour (1.70 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Wolves edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Dec 2023, ended Wolves 4–1 Brentford — a Wolves win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Wolves — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Brentford — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolves 50% versus Brentford 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolves 50% | Brentford 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolves 1.99 xG and Brentford 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolves attack 1.082 / defence 1.042 | Brentford attack 0.835 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.445. Data: built from Wolves's last 61 games and Brentford's last 60.
Result probabilities: Wolves 54% | Draw 23% | Brentford 23%. Fair-value odds: Wolves 1.86 | Draw 4.34 | Brentford 4.31. Wolves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.99 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolves at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolves if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Wolves's last 10 home games and Brentford's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wolves 80% (last 10 home games) | Brentford 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolves vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: Molineux Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolves 54% | Draw 23% | Brentford 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Wolves 1.99 / Brentford 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Wolves attack 1.082 / def 1.042 | Brentford attack 0.835 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Wolves (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Wolves xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Brentford xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wolves vs Brentford FAQs
What time does Wolves vs Brentford kick off?
Wolves vs Brentford kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Molineux Stadium.
What was the final score in Wolves vs Brentford?
Wolves 0 - 2 Brentford.
Where is Wolves vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at Molineux Stadium.
What competition is Wolves vs Brentford part of?
Wolves vs Brentford is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wolves vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Wolves a 54% chance of winning, Brentford a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Wolves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolves vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Wolves and Brentford will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wolves vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wolves's attack at 1.08x the league average against Brentford's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brentford's attack (0.83x) against Wolves's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Wolves's last 61 games and Brentford's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolves Win
54%
1.86
23%
4.34
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Wolves xG
Total xG
3.25
1.26
Brentford xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
3%
31.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wolves vs Brentford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolves vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Wolves and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Wolves and 1.26 for Brentford, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolves vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Wolves have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 20W 13D 27L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Brentford's form line: 21W 18D 21L from 60 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Wolves against 1.35 for Brentford. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wolves have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 29 home games (14W 5D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Wolves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Brentford have gone 7W 8D 14L from their last 29 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolves are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.50 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolves
Blended
Brentford
Blended
Wolves (Home) vs Brentford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wolves
Blended
Brentford
Blended
❓ Wolves vs Brentford Form FAQs
What form are Wolves and Brentford in coming into this match?
Wolves have gone 20W 13D 27L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while Brentford have gone 21W 18D 21L in their last 60 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolves at home or Brentford away?
Wolves's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolves at home: 1.62 PPG; Brentford away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 16 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolves won Brentford 1-4 Wolves on 27 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolves have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Brentford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolves
3
Draws
4
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Wolves vs Brentford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wolves and Brentford?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Wolves have won 3, Brentford have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wolves and Brentford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2026: Brentford 2-2 Wolves.
Who has won more matches between Wolves and Brentford?
Brentford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Brentford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolves 45%, Brentford 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Wolves) and 48% (Brentford).
On the defensive side: Wolves keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Brentford in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolves home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wolves vs Brentford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wolves and Brentford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Wolves's recent matches and 48% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wolves and Brentford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Wolves's recent games and 48% of Brentford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolves and Brentford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Wolves's recent matches and 76% of Brentford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brentford cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wolves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brentford beat Wolves 0-2 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.99 xG and Brentford 1.26 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wolves fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Brentford attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolves 54% | Draw 23% | Brentford 23%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Brentford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 50%, Brentford 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolves's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brentford's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolves 1.22 PPG, Brentford 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brentford win broke the near-deadlock. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Brentford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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