Fulham 3-1 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 51%, yet in-form Bournemouth provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fulham vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bournemouth travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham in Premier League (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Fulham have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fulham's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fulham are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bournemouth — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bournemouth's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bournemouth are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Fulham have won 0, Bournemouth 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2023, ended Fulham 0–3 Bournemouth — a Bournemouth win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bournemouth trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 52% versus Bournemouth 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 62% | Bournemouth 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.91 xG and Bournemouth 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.018 / defence 0.837 | Bournemouth attack 1.094 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.445. Data: built from Fulham's last 61 games and Bournemouth's last 60.
Result probabilities: Fulham 51% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 26%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.98 | Draw 4.23 | Bournemouth 3.88. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.91 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bournemouth (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fulham's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fulham 30% (last 10 home games) | Bournemouth 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 51% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Fulham 1.91 / Bournemouth 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.018 / def 0.837 | Bournemouth attack 1.094 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Fulham (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Bournemouth xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fulham vs Bournemouth FAQs
What time does Fulham vs Bournemouth kick off?
Fulham vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Fulham 3 - 1 Bournemouth.
Where is Fulham vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Bournemouth part of?
Fulham vs Bournemouth is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 51% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Fulham and Bournemouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fulham vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fulham's attack rating (1.02) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fulham's last 61 games and Bournemouth's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
51%
1.98
24%
4.23
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.24
1.32
Bournemouth xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
15%
6.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
4%
26.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fulham vs Bournemouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Fulham and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Fulham and 1.32 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 22W 11D 27L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Bournemouth's form line: 18W 12D 30L from 60 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.28 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 29 home games (14W 5D 10L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 9W 4D 16L from their last 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.12 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
Fulham (Home) vs Bournemouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fulham
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Fulham vs Bournemouth Form FAQs
What form are Fulham and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 22W 11D 27L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 18W 12D 30L in their last 60 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Bournemouth away?
Fulham's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.62 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. They cover more than one competition — Championship, Premier League. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bournemouth have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Dec 2023, when Bournemouth won Bournemouth 3-0 Fulham.
Fulham's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Fulham
4
Draws
5
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Fulham vs Bournemouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Bournemouth?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Fulham have won 1, Bournemouth have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Bournemouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Fulham 0-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 52%, Bournemouth 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Fulham and 59% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 31% of games; Bournemouth in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fulham vs Bournemouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fulham and Bournemouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Fulham's recent matches and 48% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fulham and Bournemouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Fulham's matches and 59% of Bournemouth's.
Do Fulham and Bournemouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Fulham's recent matches and 79% of Bournemouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bournemouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Bournemouth 3-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.91 xG and Bournemouth 1.32 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.02 / defence 0.84 against Bournemouth attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 51% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 26%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 62%, Bournemouth 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Bournemouth's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.28 PPG, Bournemouth 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm. Bournemouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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