Bournemouth 2-1 Manchester City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Manchester City (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bournemouth face Manchester City.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bournemouth host Manchester City at Vitality Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bournemouth — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Vitality Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bournemouth are significantly better at Vitality Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Manchester City stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Manchester City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Manchester City's away record: 8W 2D 0L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Manchester City's 2.60 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Bournemouth's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Manchester City have the better historical record — 4 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Bournemouth.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with Manchester City winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Manchester City have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Manchester City in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bournemouth 60% and Manchester City 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 64% | Manchester City 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.22 xG and Manchester City 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.068 / defence 0.816 | Manchester City attack 1.215 / defence 0.740. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.425. Manchester City's defence strength of 0.740 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Manchester City have an above-average attack strength of 1.215 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Bournemouth games / 47 Manchester City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 31% | Draw 28% | Manchester City 41%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Manchester City 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Manchester City at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Manchester City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 60% | Manchester City 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Manchester City | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 31% | Draw 28% | Manchester City 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Bournemouth 1.22 / Manchester City 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.068 / def 0.816 | Manchester City attack 1.215 / def 0.740 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Manchester City (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Manchester City xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Manchester City kick off?
Bournemouth vs Manchester City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
Bournemouth 2 - 1 Manchester City.
Where is Bournemouth vs Manchester City being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Manchester City part of?
Bournemouth vs Manchester City is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 31% chance of winning, Manchester City a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Manchester City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Bournemouth and Manchester City will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Manchester City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Manchester City?
Record (4 meetings): Bournemouth 0W | Draws 0 | Manchester City 4W.
What form are Bournemouth and Manchester City in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Manchester City (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bournemouth's attack at 1.07x the league average against Manchester City's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Manchester City's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Manchester City Win
31%
3.20
28%
3.55
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.63
1.41
Manchester City xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
8%
13.13
12%
8.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Manchester City expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.41 for Manchester City, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bournemouth come into this having played 47 games, going 16W 12D 19L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Manchester City sit at 2.43 PPG from 47 outings (35W 9D 3L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Manchester City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Manchester City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Bournemouth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bournemouth's home form reads 9W 7D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Manchester City have taken 2.35 points per game from 23 outings (17W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Manchester City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bournemouth are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Manchester City are on 2.47 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Manchester City in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Manchester City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Manchester City in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 16W 12D 19L in their last 47 games (1.28 PPG), while Manchester City have gone 35W 9D 3L in their last 47 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Manchester City away?
Manchester City's away record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.48 PPG; Manchester City away: 2.35 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Manchester City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Manchester City in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Manchester City won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bournemouth's record when hosting Manchester City specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Bournemouth
1
Draws
6
Manchester City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Manchester City?
From 8 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 1, Manchester City have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Manchester City last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester City.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Manchester City?
Manchester City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 52%, Manchester City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Bournemouth and 65% for Manchester City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Manchester City in 35%; Bournemouth have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Manchester City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Manchester City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 56% of Manchester City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Manchester City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Bournemouth's matches and 65% of Manchester City's.
Shock result as Bournemouth defy the odds to beat Manchester City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Manchester City 2-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.22 xG and Manchester City 1.41 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.07 / defence 0.82 against Manchester City attack 1.22 / defence 0.74, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 31% | Draw 28% | Manchester City 41%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bournemouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 64%, Manchester City 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Manchester City's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Bournemouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Manchester City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.