Exeter City vs York – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Exeter City at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Exeter City vs York fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Exeter City and York meet at St James Park in League Two, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Exeter City have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Exeter City haven't played a League Two game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Exeter City's home record at St James Park: 1W 5D 4L from 10 League Two appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.35 xG and York 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | York attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.201. Data: 0 Exeter City games / 0 York games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Exeter City 41% | Draw 27% | York 32%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | York 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Exeter City at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Exeter City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs York | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 41% | Draw 27% | York 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Exeter City 1.35 / York 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | York attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
1.17
York xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Exeter City vs York kick off?
Exeter City vs York is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at St James Park.
Where is Exeter City vs York being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs York part of?
Exeter City vs York is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs York?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 41% chance of winning, York a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs York?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Exeter City and York will score (BTTS).
Will Exeter City vs York have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and York?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Exeter City and York in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Exeter City (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Exeter City vs York?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Exeter City's attack at 0.85x the league average against York's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York's attack (0.85x) against Exeter City's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.74
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.52
1.17
York xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs York?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Exeter City and York expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Exeter City and 1.17 for York, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs York?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Pre-Season
York
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / York away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.