AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Grimsby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Cherry Red Records Stadium plays host to AFC Wimbledon versus Grimsby in League Two, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
AFC Wimbledon's overall League Two record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Cherry Red Records Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at The Cherry Red Records Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Grimsby (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Grimsby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grimsby's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for AFC Wimbledon, 1.50 for Grimsby — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AFC Wimbledon lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Grimsby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 40% versus Grimsby 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 39% | Grimsby 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 2.06 xG and Grimsby 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.511 / defence 0.669 | Grimsby attack 1.022 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.260. AFC Wimbledon carry an above-average attack strength of 1.511 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AFC Wimbledon's defence rating of 0.669 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 AFC Wimbledon games / 60 Grimsby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 65% | Draw 20% | Grimsby 15%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Grimsby 6.67. The model has a clear lean to AFC Wimbledon (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: AFC Wimbledon 30% | Grimsby 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 65% | Draw 20% | Grimsby 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 50% | xG AFC Wimbledon 2.06 / Grimsby 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.511 / def 0.669 | Grimsby attack 1.022 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (65%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Grimsby xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 1 Grimsby.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 65% chance of winning, Grimsby a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Grimsby will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Grimsby?
Record (4 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 1W | Draws 2 | Grimsby 1W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Grimsby in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Grimsby (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AFC Wimbledon's attack rating (1.51) and Grimsby's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Grimsby's attack (1.02x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 57/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
65%
1.53
20%
4.97
15%
6.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.92
0.86
Grimsby xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
6.80
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
2%
53.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Grimsby expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.86 for Grimsby, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 23W 15D 19L from 57 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grimsby, meanwhile, have gone 17W 15D 25L across 57 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Grimsby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for AFC Wimbledon against 1.16 for Grimsby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 16W 6D 6L from 28 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — AFC Wimbledon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Grimsby's away record stands at 6W 10D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Grimsby are on 1.25 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grimsby in 63%.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Grimsby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Grimsby in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 23W 15D 19L in their last 57 games (1.47 PPG), while Grimsby have gone 17W 15D 25L in their last 57 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Grimsby away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.93 PPG; Grimsby away: 1.00 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Grimsby been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Grimsby in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Wimbledon have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Grimsby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
AFC Wimbledon
2
Draws
2
Grimsby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Grimsby?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, Grimsby have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Grimsby last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Grimsby 0-1 AFC Wimbledon.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 46%, Grimsby 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (AFC Wimbledon) and 43% (Grimsby).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Grimsby in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Grimsby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Grimsby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 54% of Grimsby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 43% of Grimsby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Grimsby tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Grimsby in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Grimsby defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grimsby beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 2.06 xG and Grimsby 0.86 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.51 / defence 0.67 against Grimsby attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 57/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 65% | Draw 20% | Grimsby 15%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Grimsby win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 39%, Grimsby 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grimsby's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.47 PPG, Grimsby 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grimsby win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Grimsby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.