Wycombe 0-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wycombe vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals sees Charlton travel to Adams Park to take on Wycombe. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wycombe stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Wycombe's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Adams Park this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Adams Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Charlton — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charlton are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Wycombe's 20% rate and Charlton's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Wycombe, 3 for Charlton and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2025, ended 0–4 with Charlton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Wycombe in-play and half-time data (92 games, 46 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Charlton in-play and half-time data (92 games, 46 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wycombe 51% versus Charlton 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wycombe 47% | Charlton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wycombe 0.92 xG and Charlton 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wycombe attack 0.758 / defence 0.916 | Charlton attack 1.052 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.214. Wycombe's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 92 Wycombe games / 92 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wycombe 28% | Draw 31% | Charlton 41%. Fair-value odds: Wycombe 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Charlton 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wycombe 20% | Charlton 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wycombe vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Adams Park • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wycombe 28% | Draw 31% | Charlton 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Wycombe 0.92 / Charlton 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Wycombe attack 0.758 / def 0.916 | Charlton attack 1.052 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Charlton (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Wycombe xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Charlton xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wycombe vs Charlton kick off?
Wycombe vs Charlton kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Adams Park.
What was the final score in Wycombe vs Charlton?
Wycombe 0 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Wycombe vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Adams Park.
What competition is Wycombe vs Charlton part of?
Wycombe vs Charlton is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wycombe vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Wycombe a 28% chance of winning, Charlton a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wycombe vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Wycombe and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Wycombe vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wycombe and Charlton?
Record (8 meetings): Wycombe 3W | Draws 2 | Charlton 3W.
What form are Wycombe and Charlton in?
Wycombe (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Charlton (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wycombe's attack rating (0.76) and Charlton's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Wycombe's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 92/92 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
28%
3.57
31%
3.21
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Wycombe xG
Total xG
2.09
1.17
Charlton xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
9%
11.50
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 14.5 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wycombe vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Wycombe and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Wycombe and 1.17 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Wycombe vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 92 outings, Wycombe have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 41W 26D 25L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Charlton's form line: 36W 30D 26L from 92 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wycombe on 1.62 PPG, Charlton on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wycombe have posted 1.65 PPG from 46 outings (21W 13D 12L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 13W 16D 17L from 46 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wycombe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wycombe are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.42 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 92 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wycombe
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wycombe and Charlton in coming into this match?
Wycombe have gone 41W 26D 25L in their last 92 games (1.62 PPG), while Charlton have gone 36W 30D 26L in their last 92 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wycombe at home or Charlton away?
Wycombe's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wycombe at home: 1.65 PPG; Charlton away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Wycombe or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wycombe have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Charlton in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wycombe and Charlton runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2025, when Charlton won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wycombe's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wycombe
3
Draws
4
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wycombe and Charlton?
From 10 meetings on record, Wycombe have won 3, Charlton have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wycombe and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2025, when Charlton 1-0 Wycombe.
Who has won more matches between Wycombe and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wycombe see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wycombe 39%, Charlton 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Wycombe) and 46% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Wycombe keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Wycombe have failed to score in 30% of games; Charlton in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wycombe home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wycombe play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Wycombe's recent matches and 54% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wycombe vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Wycombe's recent games and 46% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wycombe and Charlton tend to score early?
Wycombe have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Charlton in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wycombe's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Adams Park, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, as Wycombe and Charlton drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wycombe 0.92 xG and Charlton 1.17 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wycombe fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Charlton landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wycombe attack 0.76 / defence 0.92 against Charlton attack 1.05 / defence 0.92, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wycombe 28% | Draw 31% | Charlton 41%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wycombe 47%, Charlton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wycombe's trading profile (92 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charlton's trading profile (92 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wycombe 1.62 PPG, Charlton 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wycombe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.