Wigan 1-2 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wigan at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wigan vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wigan host Burton Albion at The Brick Community Stadium in League One (matchday 16). Kick-off is Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Wigan — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Wigan have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Burton Albion stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Wigan carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Wigan have won 1, Burton Albion 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 29 Mar 2024, ended Wigan 1–1 Burton Albion — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Wigan in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Burton Albion in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 47% versus Burton Albion 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 44% | Burton Albion 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.00 xG and Burton Albion 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.791 / defence 1.097 | Burton Albion attack 0.756 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.170. Wigan's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Burton Albion's attack rating of 0.756 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Wigan's last 70 games and Burton Albion's last 71.
Result probabilities: Wigan 35% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 33%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.88 | Draw 3.13 | Burton Albion 3.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Wigan's last 10 home games and Burton Albion's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wigan 30% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, matchday 16 | Venue: The Brick Community Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 35% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Wigan 1.00 / Burton Albion 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.791 / def 1.097 | Burton Albion attack 0.756 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Wigan (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Burton Albion xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wigan vs Burton Albion FAQs
What time does Wigan vs Burton Albion kick off?
Wigan vs Burton Albion kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 21 January 2025 at The Brick Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Wigan 1 - 2 Burton Albion.
Where is Wigan vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at The Brick Community Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Burton Albion part of?
Wigan vs Burton Albion is a League One fixture (matchday 16) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 35% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Wigan and Burton Albion will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Wigan vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wigan's attack at 0.79x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wigan's last 70 games and Burton Albion's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
35%
2.88
32%
3.13
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Wigan xG
Total xG
1.97
0.97
Burton Albion xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 13.6 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wigan vs Burton Albion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Wigan and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Wigan and 0.97 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wigan come into this having played 70 games, going 28W 16D 26L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 0.87 PPG from 70 outings (14W 19D 37L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five.
Wigan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Wigan's home form reads 16W 7D 11L across their last 34 home games, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 34 away games (6W 12D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wigan are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.86 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
Wigan (Home) vs Burton Albion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wigan
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Wigan vs Burton Albion Form FAQs
What form are Wigan and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 28W 16D 26L in their last 70 games (1.43 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 14W 19D 37L in their last 70 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Burton Albion away?
Wigan's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.62 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Wigan or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 29 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Wigan have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Wigan's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Wigan
3
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Wigan vs Burton Albion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Burton Albion?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Wigan have won 3, Burton Albion have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Burton Albion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 December 2025: Burton Albion 0-2 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Burton Albion?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 35%, Burton Albion 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Wigan) and 47% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Wigan have failed to score in 29% of games; Burton Albion in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wigan vs Burton Albion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wigan and Burton Albion matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Wigan's recent matches and 47% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wigan and Burton Albion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Wigan's recent games and 47% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Burton Albion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Wigan's recent matches and 65% of Burton Albion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Wigan 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Wigan 1-2 at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.00 xG and Burton Albion 0.97 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Burton Albion outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.79 / defence 1.10 against Burton Albion attack 0.76 / defence 1.00, drawn from 70/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 35% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 33%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 44%, Burton Albion 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wigan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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