Charlton 2-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charlton host Peterborough at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 11 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Charlton — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 5W 4D 1L at The Valley — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Charlton carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Charlton, 2 for Peterborough and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 1–2 with Peterborough winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (75 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Peterborough in-play tendencies (75 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charlton 63% and Peterborough 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 48% | Peterborough 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.90 xG and Peterborough 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.957 / defence 0.690 | Peterborough attack 0.944 / defence 1.531. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.186. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.531 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Charlton's defence rating of 0.690 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 75 Charlton games / 75 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 64% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 14%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Peterborough 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Peterborough lead the H2H ledger, but Charlton carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Charlton 50% | Peterborough 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 64% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 46% | xG Charlton 1.90 / Peterborough 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.957 / def 0.690 | Peterborough attack 0.944 / def 1.531 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Charlton (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Peterborough xG
46%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Peterborough kick off?
Charlton vs Peterborough kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 11 February 2025 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Peterborough?
Charlton 2 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Charlton vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Peterborough part of?
Charlton vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 64% chance of winning, Peterborough a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Charlton and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Peterborough?
Record (4 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 2 | Peterborough 2W.
What form are Charlton and Peterborough in?
Charlton (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Peterborough (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Charlton's attack rating (0.96) and Peterborough's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
64%
1.56
22%
4.61
14%
6.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.68
0.77
Peterborough xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
6.97
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
30%
3.39
2%
46.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Charlton and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Charlton and 0.77 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Peterborough?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 24W 28D 23L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Peterborough's form line: 31W 16D 28L from 75 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.33 PPG, Peterborough on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.61 PPG from 36 outings (15W 13D 8L).
On the road, Peterborough have gone 13W 6D 17L from 36 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.77 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Peterborough in 65%.
Last 75 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 24W 28D 23L in their last 75 games (1.33 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 31W 16D 28L in their last 75 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Peterborough away?
Charlton's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.61 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2025, when Peterborough won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charlton's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Charlton
2
Draws
3
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Peterborough?
From 6 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Peterborough have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2025, when Peterborough 3-0 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Peterborough?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Charlton at 64%, Peterborough at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Charlton) and 67% (Peterborough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Peterborough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Charlton's games and 67% of Peterborough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Charlton's matches and 67% of Peterborough's.
Do Charlton and Peterborough tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Peterborough 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Peterborough 2-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.90 xG and Peterborough 0.77 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.96 / defence 0.69 against Peterborough attack 0.94 / defence 1.53, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 64% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 14%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 48%, Peterborough 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.33 PPG, Peterborough 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.