Stevenage 1-2 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Wigan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Wigan travel to Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 January 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lamex Stadium, Stevenage have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wigan stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wigan have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Stevenage) versus 1.30 (Wigan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Stevenage's 30% rate and Wigan's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Stevenage, 0 for Wigan and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stevenage trading profile (69 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Wigan trading profile (69 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 38% versus Wigan 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 42% | Wigan 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 0.93 xG and Wigan 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.935 / defence 0.927 | Wigan attack 0.945 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.151. Wigan's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 69 Stevenage games / 69 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 32% | Draw 32% | Wigan 36%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Wigan 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wigan as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 30% | Wigan 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 32% | Draw 32% | Wigan 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Stevenage 0.93 / Wigan 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.935 / def 0.927 | Wigan attack 0.945 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Wigan (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Wigan xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Wigan kick off?
Stevenage vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Wigan?
Stevenage 1 - 2 Wigan.
Where is Stevenage vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Wigan part of?
Stevenage vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 32% chance of winning, Wigan a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Stevenage and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Wigan?
Record (3 meetings): Stevenage 2W | Draws 1 | Wigan 0W.
What form are Stevenage and Wigan in?
Stevenage (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Wigan (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
32%
3.15
32%
3.10
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.94
1.01
Wigan xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 14.5 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.01 for Wigan, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stevenage come into this having played 69 games, going 27W 21D 21L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wigan sit at 1.41 PPG from 69 outings (27W 16D 26L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.48 PPG, Wigan on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stevenage's home form reads 16W 10D 9L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Wigan have taken 1.20 points per game from 35 outings (11W 9D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.22 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Wigan in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Wigan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Wigan in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 27W 21D 21L in their last 69 games (1.48 PPG), while Wigan have gone 27W 16D 26L in their last 69 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Wigan away?
Stevenage's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.66 PPG; Wigan away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Wigan in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stevenage and Wigan runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stevenage's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stevenage
2
Draws
1
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Wigan?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 3, Wigan have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Stevenage 1-0 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Wigan?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 37%, Wigan 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stevenage) and 49% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Stevenage have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Wigan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Stevenage's recent matches and 57% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Stevenage's recent games and 49% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Wigan tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Wigan in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wigan edge out Stevenage 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat Stevenage 1-2 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 0.93 xG and Wigan 1.01 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wigan outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.94 / defence 0.93 against Wigan attack 0.94 / defence 0.80, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 32% | Draw 32% | Wigan 36%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 42%, Wigan 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Wigan's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.48 PPG, Wigan 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wigan win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.