Stevenage 3-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Crawley Town meet at Lamex Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 41. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Lamex Stadium, Stevenage have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crawley Town (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Stevenage 3W, Crawley Town 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2025, ended 1–3 with Crawley Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 41% versus Crawley Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 42% | Crawley Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 2.01 xG and Crawley Town 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.940 / defence 1.077 | Crawley Town attack 1.123 / defence 1.663. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.112. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.663 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 85 Stevenage games / 40 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 53% | Draw 22% | Crawley Town 25%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Crawley Town 4.00. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 60% | Crawley Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Crawley Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 53% | Draw 22% | Crawley Town 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Stevenage 2.01 / Crawley Town 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.940 / def 1.077 | Crawley Town attack 1.123 / def 1.663 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Crawley Town xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Crawley Town kick off?
Stevenage vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Crawley Town?
Stevenage 3 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Stevenage vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Crawley Town part of?
Stevenage vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 53% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Stevenage and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Crawley Town?
Record (5 meetings): Stevenage 3W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Crawley Town in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (0.94) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.66), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (1.12x) against Stevenage's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 85/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
53%
1.90
22%
4.57
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Stevenage xG
Total xG
3.35
1.34
Crawley Town xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
3%
29.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.34 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stevenage's recent record stands at 32W 24D 29L from 85 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 31W 15D 39L across 85 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Stevenage against 1.27 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 18W 12D 12L from 42 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 15W 6D 21L across 42 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.48 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 85 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 32W 24D 29L in their last 85 games (1.41 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 31W 15D 39L in their last 85 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Crawley Town away?
Stevenage's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.57 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Stevenage
1
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Crawley Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 4, Crawley Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Stevenage 3-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Crawley Town?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 43%, Crawley Town 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stevenage) and 62% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Stevenage have failed to score in 26% of games; Crawley Town in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stevenage's recent matches and 52% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Stevenage's recent games and 62% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Crawley Town 3-1 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 2.01 xG and Crawley Town 1.34 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.94 / defence 1.08 against Crawley Town attack 1.12 / defence 1.66, drawn from 85/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 53% | Draw 22% | Crawley Town 25%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 42%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Crawley Town's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.41 PPG, Crawley Town 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.