Stevenage 0-0 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bolton at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Bolton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Bolton meet at The Lamex Stadium in League One (matchday 41). This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Stevenage's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Stevenage at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Stevenage are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bolton have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bolton's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Bolton are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Stevenage, 1 for Bolton and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2023, ended Stevenage 2–3 Bolton — a Bolton win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (last 85 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Bolton — key trading statistics (last 85 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 45% versus Bolton 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 42% | Bolton 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 0.96 xG and Bolton 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.725 / defence 0.836 | Bolton attack 1.067 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.185. Stevenage's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Stevenage's last 39 games and Bolton's last 85.
Result probabilities: Stevenage 32% | Draw 31% | Bolton 37%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 3.10 | Draw 3.27 | Bolton 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bolton as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bolton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stevenage 30% (last 10 home games) | Bolton 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Bolton | Competition: League One, matchday 41 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 32% | Draw 31% | Bolton 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Stevenage 0.96 / Bolton 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.725 / def 0.836 | Bolton attack 1.067 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Bolton (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Bolton xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stevenage vs Bolton FAQs
What time does Stevenage vs Bolton kick off?
Stevenage vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 29 March 2024 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Bolton?
Stevenage 0 - 0 Bolton.
Where is Stevenage vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Bolton part of?
Stevenage vs Bolton is a League One fixture (matchday 41) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 32% chance of winning, Bolton a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Stevenage and Bolton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Stevenage vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (0.72) and Bolton's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bolton's attack (1.07x) against Stevenage's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Stevenage's last 39 games and Bolton's last 85 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
32%
3.10
31%
3.27
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.02
1.06
Bolton xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.0 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stevenage vs Bolton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.06 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stevenage come into this having played 85 games, going 41W 24D 20L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Bolton sit at 1.79 PPG from 85 outings (44W 20D 21L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Stevenage against 1.79 for Bolton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Stevenage's home form reads 25W 9D 8L across their last 42 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Bolton have taken 1.52 points per game from their last 42 away games (18W 10D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stevenage are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.53 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Bolton in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 85 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
Stevenage (Home) vs Bolton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stevenage
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Stevenage vs Bolton Form FAQs
What form are Stevenage and Bolton in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 41W 24D 20L in their last 85 games (1.73 PPG), while Bolton have gone 44W 20D 21L in their last 85 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Bolton away?
Stevenage's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.00 PPG; Bolton away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Bolton in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Stevenage and Bolton, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 14 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bolton won Bolton 5-1 Stevenage on 14 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bolton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Stevenage
3
Draws
3
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Stevenage vs Bolton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Bolton?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stevenage have won 0, Bolton have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Bolton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 April 2026: Bolton 5-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 38%, Bolton 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stevenage) and 40% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Bolton in 33%; Bolton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stevenage vs Bolton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stevenage and Bolton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Stevenage's recent matches and 45% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stevenage and Bolton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Stevenage's recent games and 40% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Bolton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Stevenage's recent matches and 71% of Bolton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stevenage's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 41, as Stevenage and Bolton drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 0.96 xG and Bolton 1.06 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stevenage fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bolton landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.72 / defence 0.84 against Bolton attack 1.07 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 32% | Draw 31% | Bolton 37%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 42%, Bolton 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bolton's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.73 PPG, Bolton 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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