Shrewsbury 1-1 Oxford United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oxford United at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shrewsbury face Oxford United.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shrewsbury and Oxford United meet at The Croud Meadow in League One (matchday 41). This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Shrewsbury have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Shrewsbury's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Oxford United's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Oxford United away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Oxford United edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2023, ended Shrewsbury 0–3 Oxford United — a Oxford United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Shrewsbury half-time and goal-timing data (last 85 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Oxford United half-time and goal-timing data (last 85 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 39% versus Oxford United 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 45% | Oxford United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 0.96 xG and Oxford United 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.655 / defence 1.162 | Oxford United attack 0.954 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.185. Shrewsbury's attack rating of 0.655 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Shrewsbury's last 85 games and Oxford United's last 85.
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 27% | Draw 28% | Oxford United 45%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 3.66 | Draw 3.57 | Oxford United 2.24. Oxford United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Oxford United as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oxford United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shrewsbury 40% (last 10 home games) | Oxford United 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Oxford United | Competition: League One, matchday 41 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 27% | Draw 28% | Oxford United 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Shrewsbury 0.96 / Oxford United 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.655 / def 1.162 | Oxford United attack 0.954 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Oxford United (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Oxford United xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shrewsbury vs Oxford United FAQs
What time does Shrewsbury vs Oxford United kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Oxford United kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 29 March 2024 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Oxford United?
Shrewsbury 1 - 1 Oxford United.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Oxford United being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Oxford United part of?
Shrewsbury vs Oxford United is a League One fixture (matchday 41) (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Oxford United?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 27% chance of winning, Oxford United a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Oxford United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Oxford United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shrewsbury and Oxford United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Shrewsbury vs Oxford United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shrewsbury's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Oxford United's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Oxford United's attack (0.95x) against Shrewsbury's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Shrewsbury's last 85 games and Oxford United's last 85 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oxford United Win
27%
3.66
28%
3.57
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.27
1.31
Oxford United xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
7%
13.61
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 13.5 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shrewsbury vs Oxford United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Oxford United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Oxford United expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.31 for Oxford United, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Oxford United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 85 outings, Shrewsbury have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 30W 13D 42L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Oxford United's form line: 29W 23D 33L from 85 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Shrewsbury against 1.29 for Oxford United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shrewsbury have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 43 home games (19W 5D 19L).
On the road, Oxford United have gone 14W 12D 17L from their last 43 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Oxford United are on 1.31 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 85 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Oxford United
Current Season
Shrewsbury (Home) vs Oxford United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Oxford United
Current Season
❓ Shrewsbury vs Oxford United Form FAQs
What form are Shrewsbury and Oxford United in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 30W 13D 42L in their last 85 games (1.21 PPG), while Oxford United have gone 29W 23D 33L in their last 85 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Oxford United away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.44 PPG; Oxford United away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oxford United won Oxford United 3-0 Shrewsbury on 3 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shrewsbury have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Oxford United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Shrewsbury
2
Draws
3
Oxford United
Recent Meetings
❓ Shrewsbury vs Oxford United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Oxford United?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Shrewsbury have won 1, Oxford United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Oxford United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2024: Shrewsbury 1-1 Oxford United.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Oxford United?
Oxford United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Oxford United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 44%, Oxford United 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Shrewsbury) and 42% (Oxford United).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 42% of games; Oxford United in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Oxford United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shrewsbury vs Oxford United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shrewsbury and Oxford United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 49% of Oxford United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shrewsbury and Oxford United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 42% of Oxford United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Oxford United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 79% of Oxford United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shrewsbury and Oxford United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shrewsbury and Oxford United finished level at 1-1 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.96 xG and Oxford United 1.31 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.66 / defence 1.16 against Oxford United attack 0.95 / defence 1.10, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 27% | Draw 28% | Oxford United 45%, with Oxford United to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 45%, Oxford United 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (85 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Oxford United's trading profile (85 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 1.21 PPG, Oxford United 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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