Plymouth vs Notts County – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Notts County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Notts County travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Monday 29 March 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plymouth have posted 6W 1D 3L at Home Park — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Notts County have recorded 4W 6D 0L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Notts County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Notts County's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Plymouth) versus 1.80 (Notts County). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Notts County in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 55% versus Notts County 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 57% | Notts County 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.62 xG and Notts County 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.081 / defence 1.003 | Notts County attack 0.931 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.400. Data: 51 Plymouth games / 5 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 43% | Draw 28% | Notts County 29%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Notts County 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 80% | Notts County 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Notts County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Monday 29 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 43% | Draw 28% | Notts County 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Plymouth 1.62 / Notts County 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.081 / def 1.003 | Notts County attack 0.931 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Notts County xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Notts County kick off?
Plymouth vs Notts County is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Monday 29 March 2027 at Home Park.
Where is Plymouth vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Notts County part of?
Plymouth vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 43% chance of winning, Notts County a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Plymouth and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Notts County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plymouth and Notts County in?
Plymouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Notts County (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 1.08x the league average against Notts County's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Notts County's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
43%
2.32
28%
3.64
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.92
1.31
Notts County xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
6%
17.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.31 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth come into this having played 51 games, going 24W 8D 19L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Notts County sit at 1.82 PPG from 51 outings (27W 12D 12L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Notts County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.57 PPG, Notts County on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Plymouth's home form reads 11W 4D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Notts County have taken 1.68 points per game from 25 outings (12W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.61 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 51 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Early Season
Notts County
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Notts County in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 24W 8D 19L in their last 51 games (1.57 PPG), while Notts County have gone 27W 12D 12L in their last 51 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Notts County away?
Notts County's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.48 PPG; Notts County away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Notts County in 31%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 60%, Notts County 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Plymouth) and 48% (Notts County).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Notts County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Plymouth's games and 52% of Notts County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Plymouth's recent games and 48% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Notts County tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Notts County in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.