Peterborough 1-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Bradford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Peterborough host Bradford at Weston Homes Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 August 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Peterborough — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Peterborough have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Weston Homes Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Bradford have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bradford have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bradford's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bradford — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Peterborough trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bradford trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Peterborough 66% and Bradford 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Bradford 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 0.91 xG and Bradford 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 0.756 / defence 1.122 | Bradford attack 0.891 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.083. Peterborough's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Peterborough games / 4 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 30% | Draw 31% | Bradford 39%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Bradford 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Peterborough 50% | Bradford 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Bradford | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 30% | Draw 31% | Bradford 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Peterborough 0.91 / Bradford 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 0.756 / def 1.122 | Bradford attack 0.891 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Bradford (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Bradford xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Bradford kick off?
Peterborough vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 August 2025 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Bradford?
Peterborough 1 - 1 Bradford.
Where is Peterborough vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Bradford part of?
Peterborough vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 30% chance of winning, Bradford a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Peterborough and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Bradford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Peterborough and Bradford in?
Peterborough (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Bradford (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Peterborough's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Bradford's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
30%
3.31
31%
3.25
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.00
1.08
Bradford xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 14.7 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.08 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 13W 12D 25L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Peterborough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bradford's form line: 25W 13D 12L from 50 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Bradford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bradford are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Peterborough.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.24 PPG from 25 outings (8W 7D 10L).
On the road, Bradford have gone 6W 9D 10L from 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's season.
The Goals Picture
Peterborough are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.40 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Early Season
Bradford
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Bradford in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 13W 12D 25L in their last 50 games (1.02 PPG), while Bradford have gone 25W 13D 12L in their last 50 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Bradford away?
Peterborough's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.24 PPG; Bradford away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Bradford in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Peterborough and Bradford runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bradford go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Peterborough
1
Draws
2
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Bradford?
From 3 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 0, Bradford have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Bradford 2-0 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 60%, Bradford 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Peterborough) and 44% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 32% of games; Bradford in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Bradford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Peterborough's games and 56% of Bradford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Peterborough's recent games and 44% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Bradford tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Bradford in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough and Bradford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough and Bradford finished level at 1-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 0.91 xG and Bradford 1.08 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 0.76 / defence 1.12 against Bradford attack 0.89 / defence 0.93, drawn from 50/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 30% | Draw 31% | Bradford 39%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Bradford 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Bradford's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.