Mansfield Town 3-3 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 39%, yet in-form Mansfield Town provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burton Albion make the trip to One Call Stadium to face Mansfield Town in League One (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Mansfield Town (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Mansfield Town have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Burton Albion have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Burton Albion's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Mansfield Town's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Burton Albion's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Mansfield Town's last 10 home games and Burton Albion's last 10 away games) — Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Burton Albion in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Burton Albion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 66% versus Burton Albion 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 55% | Burton Albion 47%). Note also that Burton Albion surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Mansfield Town recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.17 xG and Burton Albion 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 0.870 / defence 1.150 | Burton Albion attack 0.922 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.207. Data: built from Mansfield Town's last 1 games and Burton Albion's last 47. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 34% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 39%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 2.97 | Draw 3.66 | Burton Albion 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burton Albion are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mansfield Town (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Mansfield Town's last 10 home games and Burton Albion's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Mansfield Town 80% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Mansfield Town 1 games, Burton Albion 47) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, matchday 2 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 August 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 34% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Mansfield Town 1.17 / Burton Albion 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 0.870 / def 1.150 | Burton Albion attack 0.922 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Burton Albion xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion FAQs
What time does Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 17 August 2024 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Mansfield Town 3 - 3 Burton Albion.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion part of?
Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion is a League One fixture (matchday 2) (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 34% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mansfield Town and Burton Albion will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mansfield Town's attack at 0.87x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.92x) against Mansfield Town's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Mansfield Town's last 1 games and Burton Albion's last 47, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
34%
2.97
27%
3.66
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.45
1.28
Burton Albion xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 1.28 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Mansfield Town have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 25W 14D 8L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Burton Albion's form line: 12W 10D 25L from 47 games, 0.98 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Mansfield Town are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mansfield Town have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 23 home games (13W 7D 3L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 5W 6D 12L from their last 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.87 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Early Season
Burton Albion
Early Season
Mansfield Town (Home) vs Burton Albion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mansfield Town
Early Season
Burton Albion
Early Season
❓ Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion Form FAQs
What form are Mansfield Town and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 25W 14D 8L in their last 47 games (1.89 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 12W 10D 25L in their last 47 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Burton Albion away?
Mansfield Town's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 2.00 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Mansfield Town
4
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Burton Albion?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Mansfield Town have won 0, Burton Albion have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Burton Albion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Burton Albion 2-2 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Burton Albion?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 56%, Burton Albion 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Mansfield Town) and 48% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Burton Albion in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mansfield Town and Burton Albion matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 44% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mansfield Town and Burton Albion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 48% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Burton Albion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 70% of Burton Albion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mansfield Town and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town and Burton Albion finished level at 3-3 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.17 xG and Burton Albion 1.28 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Mansfield Town beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burton Albion outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Burton Albion attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 1/47 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 34% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 39%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 55%, Burton Albion 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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