Burton Albion 0-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burton Albion and Stevenage meet at Pirelli Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Burton Albion's overall League One record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burton Albion have posted 1W 0D 9L at Pirelli Stadium — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 0.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Pirelli Stadium this season.
Stevenage have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Stevenage are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Burton Albion, 1 for Stevenage and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Burton Albion winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Burton Albion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 48% versus Stevenage 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 48% | Stevenage 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.37 xG and Stevenage 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 1.024 / defence 1.257 | Stevenage attack 0.918 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.252. Data: 48 Burton Albion games / 48 Stevenage games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 36% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 39%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Stevenage 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 50% | Stevenage 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (48 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 36% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Burton Albion 1.37 / Stevenage 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 1.024 / def 1.257 | Stevenage attack 0.918 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Stevenage xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Stevenage kick off?
Burton Albion vs Stevenage kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Burton Albion 0 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Burton Albion vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Stevenage part of?
Burton Albion vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 36% chance of winning, Stevenage a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Burton Albion and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Stevenage?
Record (2 meetings): Burton Albion 1W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Burton Albion and Stevenage in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Stevenage (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Burton Albion's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.92x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
The sample (48/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
36%
2.80
25%
3.97
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.82
1.45
Stevenage xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
10%
10.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.45 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burton Albion come into this having played 48 games, going 12W 11D 25L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.54 PPG from 48 outings (20W 14D 14L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stevenage carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Burton Albion's home form reads 7W 4D 13L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 1.38 points per game from 24 outings (9W 6D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.23 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Early Season
Stevenage
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 12W 11D 25L in their last 48 games (0.98 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 20W 14D 14L in their last 48 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Stevenage away?
Stevenage's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.04 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Stevenage in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
2
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Stevenage?
From 6 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 2, Stevenage have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Burton Albion 0-1 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 50%, Stevenage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Burton Albion) and 58% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 33%; Burton Albion have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 50% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Burton Albion's recent games and 58% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Stevenage tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Burton Albion's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Burton Albion and Stevenage drew 0-0 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.37 xG and Stevenage 1.45 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burton Albion fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Stevenage landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.02 / defence 1.26 against Stevenage attack 0.92 / defence 1.08, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 36% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 39%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 48%, Stevenage 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stevenage's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.