QPR 1-3 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MATRADE Loftus Road plays host to QPR versus Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Tuesday 1 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
QPR have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. QPR have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at MATRADE Loftus Road, QPR have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hull City (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hull City's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for QPR, 1.30 for Hull City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — QPR have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hull City in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: QPR 3W, Hull City 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with Hull City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 51% versus Hull City 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 45% | Hull City 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.21 xG and Hull City 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.899 / defence 1.124 | Hull City attack 1.120 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.062. Data: 53 QPR games / 53 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 34% | Draw 27% | Hull City 40%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Hull City 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: QPR 60% | Hull City 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 34% | Draw 27% | Hull City 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG QPR 1.21 / Hull City 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.899 / def 1.124 | Hull City attack 1.120 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Hull City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Hull City xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Hull City kick off?
QPR vs Hull City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 October 2024 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Hull City?
QPR 1 - 3 Hull City.
Where is QPR vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Hull City part of?
QPR vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 34% chance of winning, Hull City a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both QPR and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Hull City?
Record (6 meetings): QPR 3W | Draws 1 | Hull City 2W.
What form are QPR and Hull City in?
QPR (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Hull City (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
QPR's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.12x) against QPR's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
34%
2.98
27%
3.75
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
QPR xG
Total xG
2.54
1.34
Hull City xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are QPR and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for QPR and 1.34 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
QPR's recent record stands at 16W 15D 22L from 53 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for QPR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 16L across 53 games — 1.49 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for QPR against 1.49 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, QPR have managed 7W 8D 11L from 26 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 12W 5D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hull City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.45 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Hull City in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 16W 15D 22L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while Hull City have gone 21W 16D 16L in their last 53 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.12 PPG; Hull City away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
QPR go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: QPR won 0-3 on 14 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
QPR
1
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 6, Hull City have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Hull City 1-3 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Hull City?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 58%, Hull City 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (QPR) and 65% (Hull City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: QPR have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Hull City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of QPR's games and 65% of Hull City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of QPR's matches and 65% of Hull City's.
Do QPR and Hull City tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Hull City in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat QPR 1-3 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 8, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.21 xG and Hull City 1.34 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Hull City outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.90 / defence 1.12 against Hull City attack 1.12 / defence 0.94, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 34% | Draw 27% | Hull City 40%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 45%, Hull City 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.19 PPG, Hull City 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.