QPR 1-3 Hull City – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Hull City at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as QPR face Hull City.

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Full Analysis

MATRADE Loftus Road plays host to QPR versus Hull City in Championship (matchday 8). Kick-off: Tuesday 1 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

QPR have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, QPR have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Hull City (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Hull City's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for QPR, 1.30 for Hull City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from QPR's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) — QPR have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hull City in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for QPR, 2 for Hull City and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended QPR 0–3 Hull City — a Hull City win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 51% versus Hull City 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 45% | Hull City 55%). Note also that Hull City surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while QPR recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.21 xG and Hull City 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.899 / defence 1.124 | Hull City attack 1.120 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.062. Data: built from QPR's last 53 games and Hull City's last 53.

Result probabilities: QPR 34% | Draw 27% | Hull City 40%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.98 | Draw 3.75 | Hull City 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: QPR 60% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 60% (last 10 away games).

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