Plymouth 3-2 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sunderland at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 5 as Plymouth welcome Sunderland to Home Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Plymouth have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Plymouth have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Home Park, Plymouth have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sunderland stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Sunderland have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sunderland's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Sunderland's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Plymouth's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Plymouth's 20% rate and Sunderland's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Plymouth, 2 for Sunderland and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 1–3 with Sunderland winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sunderland in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 52% versus Sunderland 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 52% | Sunderland 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 0.96 xG and Sunderland 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.810 / defence 1.041 | Sunderland attack 1.169 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.125. Data: 50 Plymouth games / 50 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 26% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 46%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Sunderland 2.17. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 20% | Sunderland 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 26% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Plymouth 0.96 / Sunderland 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.810 / def 1.041 | Sunderland attack 1.169 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Sunderland xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Sunderland kick off?
Plymouth vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Sunderland?
Plymouth 3 - 2 Sunderland.
Where is Plymouth vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Sunderland part of?
Plymouth vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 26% chance of winning, Sunderland a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Plymouth and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Sunderland?
Record (4 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 1 | Sunderland 2W.
What form are Plymouth and Sunderland in?
Plymouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Sunderland (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Plymouth's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
26%
3.79
27%
3.65
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.33
1.37
Sunderland xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
7%
14.91
18%
5.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.3 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.37 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plymouth's recent record stands at 13W 14D 23L from 50 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 22L across 50 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.06 PPG, Sunderland on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 10W 6D 9L from 25 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 8W 6D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Plymouth are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.24 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Early Season
Sunderland
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 13W 14D 23L in their last 50 games (1.06 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 20W 8D 22L in their last 50 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Sunderland away?
Plymouth's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.44 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sunderland in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plymouth and Sunderland runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Plymouth's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Plymouth
2
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 2, Sunderland have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Sunderland 2-2 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 52%, Sunderland 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Plymouth) and 36% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 32%; Plymouth have failed to score in 28% of games; Sunderland in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Plymouth's recent matches and 44% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Plymouth's recent games and 36% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Sunderland tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat Sunderland 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Sunderland 3-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.96 xG and Sunderland 1.37 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.81 / defence 1.04 against Sunderland attack 1.17 / defence 0.85, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 26% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 46%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 52%, Sunderland 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Sunderland's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.06 PPG, Sunderland 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.