Plymouth 3-2 Sunderland – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Sunderland at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Sunderland encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Plymouth welcome Sunderland to Home Park in Championship (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 14 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Plymouth have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Plymouth have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Sunderland stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Sunderland's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form points away from home here. Sunderland's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Plymouth's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Plymouth's 20% BTTS rate and Sunderland's 30% (from Plymouth's last 10 home games and Sunderland's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Plymouth, 2 for Sunderland and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2024, ended Plymouth 1–3 Sunderland — a Sunderland win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Plymouth in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Sunderland in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 52% versus Sunderland 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 52% | Sunderland 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 0.96 xG and Sunderland 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.810 / defence 1.041 | Sunderland attack 1.169 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.125. Data: built from Plymouth's last 50 games and Sunderland's last 50.

Result probabilities: Plymouth 26% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 46%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 3.79 | Draw 3.65 | Sunderland 2.16. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Plymouth's last 10 home games and Sunderland's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plymouth 20% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 30% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights