Middlesbrough 0-1 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Middlesbrough at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Middlesbrough vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Blackburn travel to Riverside Stadium to take on Middlesbrough. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 27 November 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Middlesbrough stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Middlesbrough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Middlesbrough at Riverside Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Blackburn — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Blackburn have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Middlesbrough are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Middlesbrough, 3 for Blackburn and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Middlesbrough in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Blackburn in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 56% versus Blackburn 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Middlesbrough 51% | Blackburn 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 1.43 xG and Blackburn 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 1.070 / defence 1.131 | Blackburn attack 1.016 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.038. Data: 62 Middlesbrough games / 61 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 41% | Draw 29% | Blackburn 30%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Blackburn 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Blackburn lead the H2H ledger, but Middlesbrough carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Middlesbrough are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Middlesbrough 50% | Blackburn 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 41% | Draw 29% | Blackburn 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Middlesbrough 1.43 / Blackburn 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 1.070 / def 1.131 | Blackburn attack 1.016 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Blackburn xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Middlesbrough vs Blackburn kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Blackburn kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 27 November 2024 at Riverside Stadium.
What was the final score in Middlesbrough vs Blackburn?
Middlesbrough 0 - 1 Blackburn.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs Blackburn part of?
Middlesbrough vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 41% chance of winning, Blackburn a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Middlesbrough and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Middlesbrough vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Blackburn?
Record (6 meetings): Middlesbrough 1W | Draws 2 | Blackburn 3W.
What form are Middlesbrough and Blackburn in?
Middlesbrough (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Blackburn (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Middlesbrough vs Blackburn?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Middlesbrough's attack at 1.07x the league average against Blackburn's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Middlesbrough's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
41%
2.44
29%
3.44
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
2.63
1.19
Blackburn xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 1.19 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Middlesbrough come into this having played 61 games, going 28W 12D 21L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Middlesbrough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.23 PPG from 61 outings (20W 15D 26L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Middlesbrough on 1.57 PPG, Blackburn on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Middlesbrough's home form reads 14W 6D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.13 points per game from 30 outings (9W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Middlesbrough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.30 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Middlesbrough and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 28W 12D 21L in their last 61 games (1.57 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 20W 15D 26L in their last 61 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or Blackburn away?
Middlesbrough's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 1.60 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Middlesbrough and Blackburn runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Middlesbrough's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Middlesbrough
4
Draws
4
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Blackburn?
From 10 meetings on record, Middlesbrough have won 2, Blackburn have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Blackburn 0-0 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Middlesbrough and Blackburn?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 43%, Blackburn 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Middlesbrough) and 67% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Blackburn in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Middlesbrough play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 47% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Middlesbrough vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Middlesbrough's recent games and 67% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Middlesbrough and Blackburn tend to score early?
Middlesbrough have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Blackburn defy the odds to beat Middlesbrough 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Middlesbrough 0-1 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.43 xG and Blackburn 1.19 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Middlesbrough fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 1.07 / defence 1.13 against Blackburn attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 41% | Draw 29% | Blackburn 30%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Blackburn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 51%, Blackburn 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Middlesbrough's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Blackburn's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.57 PPG, Blackburn 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Blackburn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.