Derby vs QPR – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates QPR at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 32 as Derby welcome QPR to Pride Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 16 February 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derby have posted 3W 2D 5L at Pride Park — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park than their overall form suggests.
QPR — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour QPR — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Derby, 4 for QPR and 0 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2026, ended 1–4 with QPR winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Derby trading profile (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
QPR trading profile (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derby 63% and QPR 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 53% | QPR 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 0.94 xG and QPR 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.719 / defence 1.118 | QPR attack 0.875 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.305. Derby's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Derby games / 57 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 27% | Draw 28% | QPR 44%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | QPR 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Derby 40% | QPR 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Feb 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 27% | Draw 28% | QPR 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Derby 0.94 / QPR 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.719 / def 1.118 | QPR attack 0.875 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: QPR (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.28
QPR xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs QPR kick off?
Derby vs QPR is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 16 February 2027 at Pride Park.
Where is Derby vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs QPR part of?
Derby vs QPR is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 27% chance of winning, QPR a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Derby and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and QPR?
Record (7 meetings): Derby 3W | Draws 0 | QPR 4W.
What form are Derby and QPR in?
Derby (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. QPR (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derby's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
27%
3.67
28%
3.51
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Derby xG
Total xG
2.21
1.28
QPR xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
8%
13.14
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.0 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Derby and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Derby and 1.28 for QPR, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby's recent record stands at 21W 12D 24L from 57 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 22L across 57 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.32 PPG, QPR on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Derby have managed 10W 8D 11L from 29 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 8W 10D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.33 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; QPR in 63%.
Last 57 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and QPR in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 21W 12D 24L in their last 57 games (1.32 PPG), while QPR have gone 20W 15D 22L in their last 57 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or QPR away?
Derby's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.31 PPG; QPR away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 14 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2025, when QPR won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derby's record when hosting QPR specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Derby
0
Draws
4
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and QPR?
From 7 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, QPR have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 14 October 2026, when QPR 4-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 62%, QPR 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Derby) and 48% (QPR).
On the defensive side: QPR in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Derby's games and 55% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Derby's recent games and 48% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and QPR tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, QPR in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.