Derby vs Burnley – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Burnley at Pride Park in Championship, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby at Pride Park this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Burnley have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 0.60 PPG, Burnley 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Derby have won 0, Burnley 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Burnley in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derby 61% and Burnley 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 55% | Burnley 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.35 xG and Burnley 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.719 / defence 1.118 | Burnley attack 1.097 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.305. Derby's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Derby games / 11 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 32% | Draw 24% | Burnley 43%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Burnley 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burnley are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Derby 40% | Burnley 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 32% | Draw 24% | Burnley 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Derby 1.35 / Burnley 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.719 / def 1.118 | Burnley attack 1.097 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Burnley (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Burnley xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Burnley kick off?
Derby vs Burnley is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Pride Park.
Where is Derby vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Burnley part of?
Derby vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 32% chance of winning, Burnley a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Derby and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Burnley?
Record (3 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 3 | Burnley 0W.
What form are Derby and Burnley in?
Derby (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Burnley (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Derby's attack rating (0.72) and Burnley's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
32%
3.10
24%
4.11
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Derby xG
Total xG
2.95
1.60
Burnley xG
3.10
32%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
7%
15.37
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Derby and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Derby and 1.60 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby's recent record stands at 20W 8D 21L from 49 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 5W 15D 29L across 49 games — 0.61 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Derby have managed 10W 5D 9L from 24 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 3W 4D 17L across 24 trips, a 0.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.10 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Burnley in 65%.
Last 49 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Burnley in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 20W 8D 21L in their last 49 games (1.39 PPG), while Burnley have gone 5W 15D 29L in their last 49 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Burnley away?
Derby's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.46 PPG; Burnley away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Derby
3
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Burnley?
From 3 meetings on record, Derby have won 0, Burnley have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Burnley 1-1 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Derby at 58%, Burnley at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Derby) and 71% (Burnley). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Derby's games and 75% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Derby's matches and 71% of Burnley's.
Do Derby and Burnley tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Burnley in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.