Burnley vs Wrexham – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Wrexham at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Wrexham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 41 as Burnley welcome Wrexham to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 6 April 2027 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Burnley have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burnley have posted 0W 6D 4L at Turf Moor — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wrexham stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Wrexham have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wrexham's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Wrexham's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Burnley's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Burnley register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wrexham in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Wrexham trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Burnley 62% and Wrexham 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 52% | Wrexham 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.03 xG and Wrexham 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.893 / defence 1.152 | Wrexham attack 1.126 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.305. Data: 4 Burnley games / 50 Wrexham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 20% | Draw 30% | Wrexham 50%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 5.00 | Draw 3.33 | Wrexham 2.00. Wrexham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wrexham at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wrexham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 60% | Wrexham 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Wrexham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Apr 2027, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 20% | Draw 30% | Wrexham 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Burnley 1.03 / Wrexham 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.893 / def 1.152 | Wrexham attack 1.126 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Wrexham xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Wrexham kick off?
Burnley vs Wrexham is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Tuesday 6 April 2027 at Turf Moor.
Where is Burnley vs Wrexham being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Wrexham part of?
Burnley vs Wrexham is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Wrexham?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 20% chance of winning, Wrexham a 50% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Wrexham?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Burnley and Wrexham will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Wrexham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Wrexham in?
Burnley (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Wrexham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Burnley's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Wrexham's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Wrexham's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
20%
5.03
30%
3.29
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.72
1.69
Wrexham xG
5.03
20%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
4%
27.32
18%
5.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Burnley and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Burnley and 1.69 for Wrexham, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Wrexham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burnley's recent record stands at 4W 12D 26L from 42 games, a 0.57 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wrexham, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 11L across 42 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wrexham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wrexham by 1.03 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Burnley have managed 2W 9D 10L from 21 games — 0.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wrexham's away record stands at 8W 7D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Burnley are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Wrexham are on 1.48 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Wrexham in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Early Season
Wrexham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Wrexham in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 4W 12D 26L in their last 42 games (0.57 PPG), while Wrexham have gone 18W 13D 11L in their last 42 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Wrexham away?
Wrexham's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.71 PPG; Wrexham away: 1.48 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 48%, Wrexham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Burnley) and 43% (Wrexham).
On the defensive side: Wrexham in 33%; Burnley have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Wrexham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Wrexham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Burnley's recent matches and 52% of Wrexham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Wrexham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Burnley's recent games and 43% of Wrexham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Wrexham tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Wrexham in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.