Burnley 1-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burnley face Plymouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burnley host Plymouth at Turf Moor in Championship (matchday 8). Kick-off is Tuesday 1 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Burnley — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Burnley at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Plymouth have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Burnley at 1.40 PPG versus Plymouth's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Burnley in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 60% versus Plymouth 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 58% | Plymouth 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Burnley surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Plymouth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.78 xG and Plymouth 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 1.141 / defence 0.992 | Plymouth attack 0.778 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.062. Plymouth's attack rating of 0.778 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Burnley's last 7 games and Plymouth's last 53.
Result probabilities: Burnley 60% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 17%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 1.66 | Draw 4.36 | Plymouth 5.91. The model has a clear lean to Burnley (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Burnley 70% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 8 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 60% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Burnley 1.78 / Plymouth 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 1.141 / def 0.992 | Plymouth attack 0.778 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Burnley (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Plymouth xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burnley vs Plymouth FAQs
What time does Burnley vs Plymouth kick off?
Burnley vs Plymouth kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 1 October 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Plymouth?
Burnley 1 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is Burnley vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Plymouth part of?
Burnley vs Plymouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 8) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 60% chance of winning, Plymouth a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Burnley and Plymouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Burnley vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Burnley's attack at 1.14x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Burnley's last 7 games and Plymouth's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.36
17%
5.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.60
0.82
Plymouth xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
5.91
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
26%
3.77
3%
35.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burnley vs Plymouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Burnley and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Burnley and 0.82 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Burnley have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 9W 11D 25L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Plymouth's form line: 12W 13D 20L from 45 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 0.84 PPG, Plymouth on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Burnley have posted 0.77 PPG from their last 22 home games (4W 5D 13L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 3W 7D 12L from their last 22 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Burnley are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.13 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Early Season
Plymouth
Early Season
Burnley (Home) vs Plymouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burnley
Early Season
Plymouth
Early Season
❓ Burnley vs Plymouth Form FAQs
What form are Burnley and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 9W 11D 25L in their last 45 games (0.84 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 12W 13D 20L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Plymouth away?
Burnley's home record (0.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.77 PPG; Plymouth away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 22 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Burnley
0
Draws
0
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Burnley vs Plymouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Plymouth?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Burnley have won 2, Plymouth have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Plymouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 January 2025: Plymouth 0-5 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Plymouth?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 59%, Plymouth 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Burnley) and 41% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 32% of games; Plymouth in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burnley vs Plymouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burnley and Plymouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Burnley's recent matches and 46% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burnley and Plymouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Burnley's recent games and 41% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Plymouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Burnley's recent matches and 68% of Plymouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Plymouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Plymouth 1-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 8, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.78 xG and Plymouth 0.82 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 1.14 / defence 0.99 against Plymouth attack 0.78 / defence 1.09, drawn from 7/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 60% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 17%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 58%, Plymouth 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Plymouth's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 0.84 PPG, Plymouth 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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