Teplice 1-2 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Teplice at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Teplice face Mlada Boleslav.

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Analysis

Mlada Boleslav make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

Teplice (all games): 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Teplice have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Mlada Boleslav's record over their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Mlada Boleslav's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Teplice against 1.20 for Mlada Boleslav. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Teplice, 0 for Mlada Boleslav and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended Teplice 2–1 Mlada Boleslav — a Teplice win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Teplice — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 48% | Mlada Boleslav 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Teplice surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Mlada Boleslav have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.60 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.949 / defence 1.374 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.014 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.035. Mlada Boleslav's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Teplice's projected output up. Teplice's defence rating of 1.374 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mlada Boleslav's projected output up. Data: built from Teplice's last 36 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 35.

Result probabilities: Teplice 41% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 35%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.41 | Draw 4.16 | Mlada Boleslav 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.60 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Teplice 60% (last 10 home games) | Mlada Boleslav 50% (last 10 away games).

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