Hradec Králové 0-2 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (39%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Hradec Králové face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hradec Králové welcome Sparta Praha to Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 7). Kick-off is Saturday 31 August 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hradec Králové stand at 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Hradec Králové have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Praha — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Sparta Praha have posted 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Sparta Praha's 2.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Hradec Králové's 1.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Sparta Praha have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Hradec Králové.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Mar 2024, ended Hradec Králové 1–2 Sparta Praha — a Sparta Praha win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Sparta Praha have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 49% versus Sparta Praha 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 39% | Sparta Praha 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hradec Králové surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Sparta Praha have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.18 xG and Sparta Praha 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.934 / defence 0.837 | Sparta Praha attack 1.517 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.026. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.517, which lifts their away xG to 1.30. Data: built from Hradec Králové's last 36 games and Sparta Praha's last 36.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 34% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 39%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.97 | Draw 3.70 | Sparta Praha 2.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though recent form (Hradec Králové's last 10 home games and Sparta Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hradec Králové 40% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Praha 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 7 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 34% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Hradec Králové 1.18 / Sparta Praha 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.934 / def 0.837 | Sparta Praha attack 1.517 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Sparta Praha xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha FAQs
What time does Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Hradec Králové 0 - 2 Sparta Praha.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha part of?
Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 7) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 34% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hradec Králové's last 36 games and Sparta Praha's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
34%
2.97
27%
3.70
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.49
1.30
Sparta Praha xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
9%
10.93
12%
8.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.30 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové come into this having played 41 games, going 16W 10D 15L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 2.51 PPG from 41 outings (32W 7D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hradec Králové's home form reads 12W 4D 4L across their last 20 home games, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 2.50 points per game from their last 20 away games (16W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.34 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 61%.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Sparta Praha in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Sparta Praha
Early Season
Hradec Králové (Home) vs Sparta Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Sparta Praha
Early Season
❓ Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha Form FAQs
What form are Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 games (1.41 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 32W 7D 2L in their last 41 (2.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 2.00 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Feb 2025, when Sparta Praha won Sparta Praha 3-0 Hradec Králové.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hradec Králové
0
Draws
8
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hradec Králové have won 2, Sparta Praha have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Hradec Králové 2-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 55%, Sparta Praha 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Hradec Králové) and 70% (Sparta Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Hradec Králové's games and 65% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Hradec Králové's matches and 70% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 75% of Sparta Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Hradec Králové 0-2 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.18 xG and Sparta Praha 1.30 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.93 / defence 0.84 against Sparta Praha attack 1.52 / defence 0.89, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 34% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 39%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 39%, Sparta Praha 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.